The Premium Rata Research Of Long-term Care Insurance In Shanghai

Reform and improvement of social security institution is the objective request andinevitable trend about constructing the harmonious society of China, while social insuranceinstitution is the core content in the social security system. Social long-term care insuranceas an integral part of the social insurance system, the problem of the contribution ratebelongs to the category of social insurance, so it’s very necessary to discuss.With theincrease of the disabled elders, family miniaturization and baby bust, the contradiction ofthe traditional family endowment service between the nursing demand raise has beenincreasingly prominent. The high price of nursing service, the single source of life as wellas the high stress in your life has curbed the effective demand of nursing services. Nowshanghai don’t have the specialized Security policy about demand of the disabled elders.Thus, when we design the Social long-term care insurance, the first thing is the calculationof the contribution rate, which must be accepted by the insured, and Purchase the service tomean their basic requirement. Domestic scholars rarely pay attention to the study of thecontribution rate，but focus on the demand to supply of nursing service, the introduction offoreign experience, the choice of the mode, the feasibility analysis and so on.According to the principle of "to" set of outriggers, this research based on the actuarialbalance has the contribution rate level contact with requirement and Social contribution.There are two difficulties in this paper, the first is the probability of the different ageparagraph of the old man who require different level service; the second is the premiumrata changed with the age of join in the insurance. Based on the survey datas about the400olders, we got the probability by ages above sixty about the400. Then using the Bayesianformula, carried the probablility which the disable choosing the survice of all people abovesixty, and the expected cost as well. We need large-scale computing, and use the law oflarge numbers analogy method. By the principle of fairness, we use the long-term actuarialbalance model to settle, and come to the conclusion that the premium rapidly follow the ages.The last department of the paper, by using the theory of Residents’ disposable income,the Keynesian theory of consumption, we do the research of the financial feasibility. Thelast of the last we put forward some suggestions and pointed out the shortage of the article...