A Statistic Analysis Of Variation Of Size Of The Urban Middle-income Groups In China

Investment、consumption and net export are three carriages stimulatingeconomic growth.In the current circumstances, the investment need tospend a lot of resources, and it is blindfold; due to the appreciation of theRMB and the rise of the human capital price, the export products ofChina will gradually lost the superiority in cost, the future of net exportsis not optimistic; another hand, China has the largest population, in otherword, China has the largest consumer market. So, stimulatingconsumption and enlarging domestic consumer demand are importantways to promote national economic growth. The urban middle-incomegroup has advanced consumer awareness and consumption ability, whichis a driving force in the growth of consumption in China. This paper takesthis as a foothold. First,the writer gives the definition of themiddle-income groups, then gets the distribution of the per capitaconsumption expenditure of urban residents through the inversetransformation method, in order to get the proportion of the urbanmiddle-income group over the years; this paper gets the principle thatrelated factors affect the size of the middle-income group throughanalysing the characteristics and influencing factors of the urbanmiddle-income groups. Then, through building the multiple linearregression model and the varying-coefficient model, this paper gives thestructural analysis to the variation of the size of the urban middle-income groups，in order to get that how related factors affect the size of the urbanmiddle-income groups and how the effect varies in time series. Finally,according to the results of the analysis, this paper put forward strategiesto enlarge the size of the urban middle-income groups, so as to stimulateconsumption and enlarge domestic demand for consumption, in order toprovide power for the sustainable and healthy development of nationaleconomy.