The Risk Assessment Of Rainstorm Flood Disaster In The Central Region Of Liaoning Province

Flood disaster is a serious natural disaster in the way of its frequency, personnel injury andeconomic losses. And for the intensity of space and time and the threat of human civilization,flood disaster ranks first of all kinds of natural disasters. So a comprehensive understandingand assess the risks of natural disasters which cause the human society, is not only thefoundation of disaster prevention and mitigation work, but also the urgent needs of humansocial and economic sustainable development. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk andflood formation principle, this paper constructs the rainstorm flood disaster risk assessmentmodel, and carry out the storm flood risk analysis in base of different spatial scales, thenconcentrate on the evolution of the rainstorm flood disaster risk under the background ofLUCC and climate change. It has important scientific value and strategic significance to buildflood disaster risk management system, strengthen the flood defense and promote sustainabledevelopment strategy in central Liaoning region implementation.Taking liaoning central region as a study area, this paper firstly summarizes the concept ofnatural disaster risk at home and abroad and the main method of flood disaster riskassessment, and then introduces the research purpose, significance, content and relatedtheoretical basis. On the basis of the analysis of characteristics of regional environmental andselecting the meteorological data from1960to2009and2000,2005,2009three periods ofland use/cover data, this paper analysis of the region’s climate change and land use/land coversubsquently changes in the environment. Analysis results show that the average temperatureof50a rises at a rate of about2.98℃/10a and precipitation falling at a rate of about7.84mm/10a; the first main cycle of annual average temperature and annual precipitation change is27a; Cultivated land and forest land area is reducing year by year, grassland, forest landand unused points all have different degrees of growth. And then choosing four evaluationfactors of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, theflood risk assessment model is established to analyze rainstorm flood disaster risk assessmenton the scale of administrative region and grid. Results show that stormrain flood disaster riskof the central Liaoning is roughly low in the middle and high on both sides, the trend ofdecreased from north to south. High risk area mainly concentrates in the areas of highurbanization degree and coastal areas, and low risk area mainly distributes in northern andcentral regions. Finally, according to the flood risk assessment results of the region in2000and2009, this paper analyze the evolution space-time pattern of the flood disaster risk for the period2000-2009and the flood disaster risk level changes, to explore the inherent law ofevolution of risk, which to provide scientific basis for regional sustainable development.