A Comparative Study Of Countys’Environmental Capacity For Livestock And Poultry Breeding In Hangzhou

With the consumption of meat and poultry products increased, the livestock and poultry breeding industry is expanding. Livestock and poultry breeding becomes an important source of farmers’ income. However, the environmental pollution that is caused by this industry is not trivial. Since the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding can measure the relationship between industrial development and environmental capacity, study on the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding is not only benefit to coordinate the relationship between economic development and environmental protection, but also has an important significance to fulfill the ecological agriculture.Based on the field investigation, literature and experts’ advices, this paper quantify and analyses the environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding by building index system and using the system analysis, forecast and evaluate the environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding by applying the grey system model, make a comparative study of the environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding by using panel data of the livestock and poultry breeding industry and8counties and districts in Hangzhou from year2004to2010.The main research content is as follows:Firstly, we describe the current state of development of the livestock and poultry breeding industry, then make a comparative analysis on the differences of each county or district’s pig-equivalent, differences during the period and the distribution of the main kinds of livestock and poultry breeding.Secondly, we use the information of each county or district’s number of breeding and slaughter to estimate the amount of livestock and poultry breeding manure which represents the non-point source pollution caused by livestock and poultry breeding. Then we compare the different relationship between animal manure production and animal husbandry income caused by different counties.Thirdly, we apply system analysis method and use11indicators of environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding to quantify each county or district’s environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding. By analyze and compare the comprehensive value of index, we divide them into4types according to the degree of environmental damage.Finally, based on the grey system theory, we build a grey system GM (1,1) model. According to the model and4types of environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding, we forecast the future trend of environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding. At last we make a case analysis of the naturally environmental capacity for livestock and poultry in Lotus town, Jiande, Hangzhou.The results are showed as follows:Firstly, Hangzhou’s livestock and poultry breeding industry are imbalanced in the time and space distribution. In space, XiaoShan is the largest proportion of raising livestock and poultry, accounting for more than37%of the whole; In time, all of the counties’ breeding scale has changed in7years, among those, Hangzhou city (except Xiaoshan and Yuhang), Yuhang, Tonglu and ChunAn’s scale has declined, other counties all have increased in varying degrees.Secondly, the8counties’ environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding in Hangzhou is not equilibrium; we can divide them into four categories according to their impaction on the environment:(ⅰ) Small amounts of breeding type (except Xiaoshan and Yuhang) cause the least harm to the environment and its environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding pollution is the highest. However, this type only suitable for the core area of city or counties that is dominated by travel industry, there is no use to promote this type.(ⅱ) Modest breeding type (Yuhang, Tonglu, Chun’an) is the best type to fulfill the harmonious development of livestock and poultry breeding and environment. This type take advantage of scale cultivation to control the breeding number and breeding species, and use scientifically means of pollution control to control the emission of pollution.(ⅲ) Saturated breeding type (Jiande, Fuyang, Lin’an) has not cause harm to the environment yet, but it will turn into excessive type if it is still unchecked. So, this type needs the attention of local government and should take appropriate means to regulate the breeding scale, strengthen the efforts of pollution control.(ⅳ) Excessive breeding types (Xiaoshan) causes harm to the environment, overall massive governance is needed. The development pattern of Xiaoshan should cause alarm around the district.The possible innovation points in this thesis are as follows:(a) We use environmental capacity to investigate the raising livestock and poultry non-point pollution, that’s an innovation point at research angle,(b) Based on the county level, we study the eight counties’ environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding in Hangzhou, then classify and compare them into4categories, provide further study on environmental capacity for livestock and poultry breeding on county level with reference.(c) we analysis and calculation the level of livestock and poultry pollution and the limit value of environmental capacity by using the grey system analysis method and grey forecasting model, which will therefore provide valuable reference for the government to control environmental pollution from animal husbandry.