Effects Of Agricultural Development Mode On Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution

China is now at the stage of serious environmental pollution which is coursed by the change of agricultural development mode, especially agricultural non-point source pollution, which leads to serious water pollution and a sharp deterioration in the rural environment. Therefore, food safety has been questioned, which may lead to agriculturalface facing more difficulties. To meet urban and rural residents higher demands for agricultural products quantity and quality, to promote the development of agriculture, to break ecological environment constraints, the fundamental way out is to acceleratly change the agricultural development mode.Based on the macro level data of wuxi-suzhou-changzhou-zhenjiang area during1988-2008, the evolution law of TN、TP、COD was calculated and analysed, the EKC hypothesis between economic growth and TN, TP, COD emission intensity wsa tested, what’s more, the effect of the agricultural development mode on TN, TP, COD emission intensity was analysed. The following main contents are included:Firstly, the theoretical analysis framework of the influence, exerted on agricultural non-point source pollution by agricultural development mode, is constructed. The influence of economic growth on agricultural non-point source pollution is deeply revealed. Agricultural development mode promotes the economic growth, and certain economic growth stages will be in one-to-one correspondence with certain agricultural development modes. Based on EKC decomposition theory, agricultural development mode is divided into scale, composition and abatement effects, and should be further divided into agricultural input scale, the industrial structure, scientific and technological progress, agricultural industrialization management, and agricultural ecological construction. Among them, agricultural input scale belongs to scale effect, and the industrial structure is assigned to composition effect, and scientific and technological progress, agricultural industrialization management, agricultural ecological construction under abatement effect. Agricultural development mode will influence the agricultural non-point source pollution through these five aspects.Secondly, the panel data is uesed to check out whether the realtionships between economic growth and TN, TP, COD emission intensity fit for EKC hypothesis. The result shows that the relationships between economic growth and TN, TP, COD emission intensity accord with EKC hypothesis, and turning point appeared in per capita GDP37496.91(yuan, at comparable prize,1988as annual base eriod),36576.92,and40233.80respectively. Wuxi city, Suzhou city, Changzhou city and Zhenjiang city’s real per capital GDP in2008are lower than values at turning point, and lie on the left part of EKC curve.Along with economic growth, the environmental situation is not optimistic.And, the panel data is used to make a regress analysis between agricultural development mode and TN, TP, COD emission intensity. The agricultural development mode index are the indices of unit GDP, planting structure, agricultural structure, per capita cultivated area, contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress and agro-tourism. The result shows that unit GDP, agricultural structure and per capita cultivated area have significant positive effect on TN, TP, COD emission intensity. Planting structure, contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress have obvious negative effect upon TN, TP, COD emission intensity. Test for Agro-tourism is significant, though not significant in TP and COD emission model, with negative sign in TN emission intensity model. This suggests that the growth of agricultural inputs, per capita cultivated area, sown area of cash crops, and breaking livestock or poultry increase will make agriculture non-point source pollution deteriorated; The scientific and technological progress and agro-tourism will mitigate agricultural non-point source pollution.Finally, some suggestions are put forward for the changing way of agriculture development during2011-2015based on the research results, including:(1) to optimize the agriculture industry structure, and set up a modern agricultural system;(2) to promote science and technology innovation, and generalize environment friendly technique;(3) to cultivate new farmers, and enhanced environmental protection consciousness;(4) to promote agricultural scale management,with reducing fertilizer input measures;(5) focus on agro-ecological construction, mining agriculture ecological function.