Study On The Relationship Between Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution And Agricultural Economic Growth In Coastal Areas Of China

Over more than forty years of reform and opening-up,China has achieved remarkable economic growth as well as great agricultural progress,but the accompanying problems of agricultural environment have impeded the pace of sustainable development,especially the overemphasized economic growth and ignored environmental carrying capacity as well as increasing non-point source pollution.For this reason,China has taken various measures since the 18 th CPC National Congress to balance the contradiction between economic growth and environmental pollution.And,it is of vital strategic importance to solve this problem in China’s coastal areas.Therefore,this research analyzed the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth and explored the agricultural nonpoint source pollution in coastal China from 1995 to 2018 to answer the following questions: Is it in line with the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis? Are there regional spatial effects? What are the factors affecting the environment?In this research,the non-point source pollution survey and evaluation method based on element analysis was used to measure the total nitrogen and total phosphorus in agricultural non-point source,and the traditional econometric model and spatial econometric model were employed to regress agricultural non-point source pollution.It was found that as the traditional econometric model was used for regression,both nitrogen pollution and phosphorus pollution supported the inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve hypothesis.Since 1998,agricultural non-point source pollution in coastal China has gradually shifted from the spatial negative correlation based on the economic distance weight matrix to the positive correlation but the agglomeration tendency is still in the early stage.Therefore,this research used the Spatial Dubin Model with double fixed effects for regression and found that the original inverted U-shaped curve changed into an N-shaped curve,indicating that with the agricultural economic growth,nonpoint source pollution cannot be restrained and environmental governance is not promising.In addition,the industrial structure,technological progress and environmental awareness of farmers in coastal areas all significantly affect agricultural non-point source pollution.Based on the above conclusions,this research proposed some policy recommendations for rational pollution control.However,there was a shortcoming that the pollution indicators based on previous literature may cause errors in data processing.Besides,this research innovatively applied multiple sources of pollution to speculate the total estimate of agricultural non-point source pollution,which avoids the test distortion caused by single source research.And,it applied the idea of spatial econometrics to the test of environmental Kuznets curve and compared and analyzed the two models to validate that the idea of spatial econometrics is necessary for the research of agricultural non-point source pollution.What is more,this research made valuable test and forecast on the non-point source pollution control results of the governments of fast-developing coastal areas and provided theoretical basis and policy recommendations for the collaborative governance in coastal areas.