The Association Studies Between Energy Consumption And Meteorological Factors In Beijing

This paper initially attempts to study the relationship between energy consumption and meteorological factors in Beijing. In order to prove this relationship, we should seek scientific and effective research methods. According to analyzing the relationship between energy consumption and meteorological factors, we can provide a scientific basis for energy-saving policy of local government. And according to the local climatic conditions, we can also arrange the energy development strategy. Further, we can promote energy arrangement strategy and energy development strategy to the rest of the province, and provide a basis for decision making under the influence of meteorological factors among energy development of the rest of the province.Firstly, we outline the related issues of energy consumption in Beijing. The analysis compares the change of the energy consumption rate and GDP growth rate in Beijing since1980. We discuss the climate impact on the energy consumption progress, and also cite the example of energy-saving and emission-reduction in Beijing since1993. Based on the academic analysis, we find:selecting total energy consumption, GDP, fixed asset investment, per capita disposable income, average temperature, precipitation, sunshine time, mean wind speed and mean pressure from1980to2010in Beijing as research indicators. At the same time, using the energy consumption rate time series instead of energy consumption time series, and the meteorological factors time series have an anomaly processing.Secondly, according to the feature of gray relational model, we establish change-point algorithm based on gray relational analysis method. By gray relation analysis method to find out the change point of the meteorological factors time series and the energy consumption time series in Beijing from1980to2010, and analyze the change tendency of the energy consumption and meteorological factors sequence. It is shown that the change point of Beijing’s energy consumption series is1993and 1997, while the change points of the meteorological factors are from1993to2000. Further, the change point of average temperature, sunshine hour and energy consumption sequences are the same exactly. Especially, we verify the practicality and effectiveness of change-point algorithm based on gray relational analysis method in finding the change location of the energy consumption and meteorological factors time series.Thirdly, based on cointegration method, we detect the cointegrate interaction between energy consumption and meteorological factors sequence. We utilize the Orthogonal Least-Squares to regress cointegration regression equation among the Beijing energy consumption, GDP and meteorological factors sequence. In a different hysteresis period, we observe the Granger causality, and reveal the characteristics interaction of two variables. It is shown that there is non-cointegration running from energy consumption to economic growth, but among energy consumption and meteorological factors are cointegrate. Moreover, at the10%confidence level approaching, average temperature is the Granger causation of energy consumption factor. Specially, we detect that the Beijing sunshine duration and energy consumption have a substantial connection.Finally, based on data envelopment analysis, we analyze the input-output efficiency of energy consumption and economic indicators in Beijing city under the influence of short-term climatic factors. Selecting total energy consumption, fixed asset investment, average air temperature, precipitation, sunshine time, average wind speed and average as the input variables, and GDP, per capita disposable income as the output indicators. We also analyze the technical efficiency and the scale efficiency under the influence of the short-term climatic factors, and the inefficient decision units are improved. Empirical analysis shows that both energy consumption and economic growth are sensitive to short-term climate condition, and the reasonable employing of extreme climatic conditions is a question worthy of consideration.