| Since the mid-20th century, the global economy has been developed rapidly, the world’s scientific and technological level also improved quickly, the speed of progress of whole society continue to move forward. However, these achievements made at the expense of a lot of environment and natural resources. The natural environment has been unbearable pressure imposed on development of economy, environmental issues have become increasingly apparent. The issue of environment has become the most important issue for the countries in the world need to consider. The signing of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, the signing of the Kyoto Protocol as well as the convening of the World Climate Conference in Copenhagen, that the social and environmental problems has received increasing attention of the countries in the world. In this case, seek a low-carbon economy development road, and protection of the social and ecological environment has become the urgent work of countries in the world. The goal of a low-carbon economy is to achieve decoupling of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions. So, dealing with the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions become important issues need to be studied in the field of low-carbon economy.This relationship can be described by the Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC is used to describe the relationship between the level of economic development and environmental pollution, the hot spot of research in the field of environmental economics. It first appeared in the1990s by leading environmental economists Grossman and Krueger in their1991study, and pointed out that the relationship between per capita income and environmental pollution showing the shape of inverted "U". However, they did not explicitly put forward the concept of "Environmental Kuznets Curve". It was first proposed in1993by Panayotou. Subsequently, people began to study this particular curve, various empirical studies conducted, continuously enriched and improved the theory. And Environment Kuznets Curve is study relatively late in our country, this is related with our concept of pollution first, treatment later. But with the continuous development of China’s economy, the quality of the environment is facing many challenges. Therefore, promote the harmonious development of the economy and environment has become an important and arduous task that the Chinese government need to face. In addition, as a responsible big country, China has voluntarily committed in Copenhagen that China’s carbon intensity will decline by40%-45%by2020.In the construction of China’s"12th Five-Year Plan"ensure that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to achieve more than11%by2015.In this context, our research on the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions is particularly urgent.In this paper, based on the theoretical basis of Environmental Kuznets Curve and the basic theoretical model of EKC, the author researched Carbon dioxide Kuznets Curve of china. In addition, because of very uneven economic development of china’s areas, the regional carbon dioxide emissions are also quite different, for more detailed and specific analysis of China’s Carbon dioxide Kuznets Curve, this paper research the country, the east, the central and the western’s Carbon dioxide Kuznets curve. And analyzed the per capita GDP that the inflection point corresponding. All this is to provide the scientific basis for government to reduce carbon dioxide emission more efficient.In this paper, at first, the author estimated the country’s30provinces (municipalities), autonomous region’s carbon dioxide emissions of2000-2010by the benchmark method provided in the IPCC. Seconded, based on the EKC basic theoretical model, considering the spatial correlation, the author used spatial panel model to study the carbon dioxide Kuznets curve. And further illustrate the existence of spatial correlation of china’s carbon dioxide emissions by comparison with ordinary panel model. In addition, the combination of EKC formation mechanism, and the specific situation of China, the paper added level of industrialization, the level of foreign trade, as well as the level of urbanization as a control variable, based on the maximum likelihood estimation method, analyzed the existence of the Carbon dioxide emissions Kuznets Curve of the country, the eastern, central and western regions and the corresponding characteristic. And calculated the real per capita GDP in the corresponding inflection point is reached. The study results show that:(1) National and eastern exist inverted "U" carbon dioxide Emissions Kuznets Curve. And national and eastern lie in the left of the carbon dioxide emission Kuznets curve now. Moreover, for the country range, Per capita GDP is3,300,149RMB in the corresponding inflection point is reached and eastern region is73,650RMB.(2) In the central and western region did not exhibit traditional carbon dioxide emission Kuznets curve, but showed the shape of "U". And the central region lie in the left of the carbon dioxide emission Kuznets curve now, but the western already across the turning point and lie in the right of the carbon dioxide emission Kuznets curve. In addition, the central region of the inflection point arrives when the per capita GDP of60,292RMB, and of5,461RMB in the western region.(3) The level of industrialization of the country, the central and the western has a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the eastern part of the impact is negative. This may be related to imbalanced development of region’s economy and industrial production efficiency.(4) The level of the foreign trade of the country and the eastern and western regions has a negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions, compared with a positive correlation in central region. This may be related to government’s policy.(5) The level of city has a positive correlation with carbon dioxide emissions in all regions. Namely, with the speeding up of urbanization process, the carbon dioxide emissions will continue to increase in all regions.On the basis of the findings, from the emission reduction targets, energy type, economic structure, the type of trade products and urbanization on China, the paper proposed relevant policy recommendations for carbon dioxide, emission reduction.In addition, the innovation of this paper are:(1) Based on IPCC provides reference method, considering the carbon dioxide produced in the process of cement production, carbon dioxide emissions were estimated of china’s30provinces (municipalities), autonomous regions.(2) The use of space panel model and empirical analysis on China’s eastern, central and western regions of carbon dioxide Kuznets emission curve.(3) The level of economic development of the region is different, suggested different advice for different regions and will promote China’s carbon emission reduction targets for2020. The inadequacies of this paper are:(1) Estimate China’s provinces carbon dioxide emissions only using International Computing in a way, but there are four international data sets on carbon dioxide emissions, this article’s data used for calculation method is not necessarily the optimal one. Second, Tibet’s data is missing.(2) The control variables are not very comprehensive.(3) Only selected data since2000-2010of this article, the time span of only11years, may have some impact on the model estimates. |
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