'Robust' Factors Affecting China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development has made remarkable achievements, the process of industrialization and urbanization also has gradually sped up, and people's living standards have markedly improved, while achieving such huge achievements, the growing carbon emissions has become an ignorable factor that will destruct the global environment as well as human's survival, and it also has become an important influence factor of social and economic sustainable development. To achieve sustainable development of society, and develop low-carbon economy, it is essential to analyze the influence factors of carbon dioxide emissions.Based on the theory, this article first estimates the carbon dioxide emissions of China's 30 provincial regions during 2003-2012, then applying the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve to examine the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth, as well as the spillover effects, then based on the extreme boundary analysis model (EBA) empirically analyzes the factors which have 'robust'effect on carbon dioxide emissions in provincial regions. It shows that in provincial regions, there doesn't exist an inverse'U'-curve between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth that Environmental Kuznets Curve assumes; Proportion of heavy industry, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, energy efficiency and passenger traffic have 'robust' and positive impacts on carbon dioxide emissions, while foreign direct investment, proportion of local fiscal spendings in GDP have 'robust'and negative impacts on carbon dioxide emissions.Based on these empirical conclusions, some suggestions are proposed:1) to adjust the industrial structure, accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure; 2) to improve the trade structure, increase the intensity of environmental regulation; 3) to adjust energy consumption structure, improve energy efficiency; 4) to advocate public transportation, develop low-carbon transport;5) to strengthen the regional government cooperation, build long-term mechanism for coordinated regional development. These recommendations can provide empirical evidence and decision-making reference for the Government to formulate corresponding carbon reduction policies.