The Potential Anti-satellite Threat Of Ballistic Missile Capabilities

As of today only the United States and China have obtained and successfullydemonstrated kinetic-energy anti-satellite (KE ASAT) capability, using modifiedballistic missile technology. However, since many other countries already have acquiredballistic missile capabilities, they might have the incentive to develop KE ASATweapons too. Imposing restrictions on the use of this technology would be beneficial forall the countries that have outer space interests in order to ensure the safety of all thesatellites in outer space, nevertheless, no limitations have been enforced yet.This work examines the potential threat that the KE ASAT capabilities of differentcountries pose. In the first part of this Thesis, the maximum altitude that ballisticmissiles can reach is computed. Then these altitudes are compared with the altitudes ofthe satellites in order to evaluate whether the satellite is being threatened by the missile.The conclusion of the first section is that almost all the satellites in the Low Earth Orbitare susceptible to being hit by all the countries that were considered in this paper.In the second part, an analysis is being made by applying the results of the first partto specific country. The six countries that are being considered in Thesis are China,India, Iran, North Korea, Russia and the U.S.; these countries are chosen because theyalready possess KE ASATs (China and the U.S.), or are suspected to obtain ASATcapability in the near future (India and Russia), or because currently their substantialballistic missile capabilities already pose a significant threat to the global strategicstability (Iran and North Korea). The overall outcome is that on the long term, it wouldbe beneficial for each country to abide by a formulated framework of regulationsconcerning KE ASAT weapons.The results should support existing proposals of constraints of the deployment anduse of KE ASAT weapons,including the appeals of Russia and China on thenegotiations of the non-weaponization of outer space. It is important to persuade policymakers to implement these restrictions, in order to ensure the security of the outer spaceenvironment, both for its domestic national security objectives as for what it signifiesfor the development of the prosperity for all mankind.