Forecasting Research On The Economic Benefits Of Shenyang Metro Line2

The public transportation system of Shenyang has severely hindered the sustainable development of society and economy. In order to promote the sustainable development of public transportation system, Shenyang planned a high-speed track transportation network, including11lines with the total length of400km. The Metro line2is the most important North-South line among the high-speed track transportation network of Shenyang.However, the Metro construction is costly. As soon as the metro line starts to run, government also needs to spend lots of social and economic costs to maintain the metro operation. Metro, as a public construction product, the social and economic benefits brought by metro must match the construction and operation cost of the metro. Thus, it is necessary to carry out comprehensive forecasting analysis on the after-operation economic benefits of the Metro line2.This thesis adopts a "four-stage method" to forecast the passenger flow of Shenyang Metro line2. First, it forecasts and analyzes the influence on the land development, urban construction and population distribution of the lands along the Metro line; this paper also forecasts and analyzes on issues concerning economy, population, employment and land use in the initial stage, short-term and long-term operation process of Metro Line2. On the basis of these two forecasting, a trip generation forecasting was made. In accordance with the findings of residents’ trip at the present stage, a residents’trip distribution model was established, and a residents’ all-methods trip OD chart was generated. In the next stage, means of transportation and traffic models were marked and divided to get OD charts for various means of transportation, such as public transportation system(bus+metro), bicycle, walk and motorcar. Finally, the OD chart of public transportation system was shared with public transportation network to get the passenger flow forecasting of Shenyang Metro Line.On the basis of forecasting the passenger flow, sensitive analysis was implemented on the factors that would influence the passenger flow, such as ticket price, utilization and planning of lands along the Metro line, population size, connection to public transportation system, national macro policy, etc. Based on above analysis, this thesis analyzes the annual total ticket income for Metro line2as well as the pricing strategy to gain maximization of earnings.This paper analyzes and forecasts the fixed cost and variable cost in the initial operation stage of Metro Line2by adopting the Cost Structure Theory on Urban Track Transportation; comparative analysis was also made on cost and profit, thus, the earned value and BEP(Break-Even Point) in the initial operation stage of Metro Line2were concluded.In the end, this thesis puts forward several constructive ideas and suggestions on the profit increasing for the operation construction department of Metro Line2as well as on the policy support gained from government.