The Study On Holiday Passenger Train Operation Scheme Based On Real-time Ticket

Now,railway construction in China has entered in a phase of rapid development and selling railway tickets through the internet widely accepted by passengers and become more and more universal.The ticket data of the internet ticketing system reflects the most of the passengers' travel choice and demand.Under the situation that it's possibly to adjust the tickets system dynamic and timely during the pre-sale period,we need to collect and analyze the balance of tickets timely and accurately to make sure the he rule of railway transport passenger flow could be acquired accurately on time.So we can make a dynamic adjustment on the passenger train scheme of railway and working out a scientific and reasonable passenger train scheme to enhance the ability competing with other modes of transportation.The traditional statistical and forecasting methods lack the comprehensive consideration on the impact factors of passenger demand.So data collected by manual investigation can't be guaranteed and respond to the changes rapidly and flexibly.so working out a new way which combine the traditional mathematical statistical methods with data mining method based on the big data hide behind the internet ticketing system is becoming an important issue to be solved,which can make basis and reference for rail operations department to optimize the train program and improve transportation quality.The paper focuses on the research of railway passenger flow forecasting and passenger train scheme of railway in and abroad.Then collecting the real-time information of seat amount of different period through the internet ticketing system in order to find out the passenger fluctuation characteristics of classified train of different time and period.Next,the paper establish a ticket balance ARMA model and algorithm based on the railway ticketing data sample from classified analysis of real-time ticket data.Applying the model theories,the paper make prediction on the passenger flow of four different level by Eviews,then proves the applicability of model and appropriately connect with the design of train operation scheme for railway.The paper construct a Multi-objective programming model which considers mininum of the costs of railway enterprise and meet maxinum of the passenger requirement.The proposed model applied to optimize and adjust the passenger train operation scheme of the trains from Dalian railway station.The result validates the proposed methods are effective and feasible and can either improve transit capability or cut down the economic cost through launching appropriate operation scheme.Finally,the paper aim to optimize the train operation scheme of the trains from Dalian to Shenyang during the national holidays and compare the results with the practical numbers of passenger sent by train and train composition analyzing.The results of the study can help to acquire the accurate passenger travel characteristics from internet ticketing system and respond to the changes rapidly and flexibly.Moreover,it dedicate to increase the operation efficiency of the railway to enhance the scientific level of the marketing management.