Study Of Distribution Power System Reliability Fore-casting

According to the needs of the city power grid reliability planning, combined with the characteristics of urban distribution network, the article studies reliability prediction method, specific work as follows:By analyzing reliability index system of urban electricity distribution by power grid to determine the main power supply reliability indicators. By establishing a model with reliability parameters including the elements of urban power grid to create a reliable theoretical method of urban power distribution network, and based on the theoretical results of the assessment predicting urban distribution network supply reliability. Trend extrapolation, gray prediction method and regression forecast method are used respectively to predict the reliability of urban power distribution network, based on a reliable historical data of urban power grid.Based on the characteristics of different prediction methods, establishing a reliable comprehensive prediction function of urban power grid to carry out a series of comprehensive forecast and hence form a comprehensive forecast program.