Prediction Based On The Exponential Smoothing Building Project Cost

On July1,2003formally implemented "construction project quantities list valuationspecification", marked the our country construction project pricing mode in line withinternational standards, in particular, the revised2008"construction project quantities listvaluation specification"(GB50500-2008), on the one hand, the bidding behavior of bill ofquantities pricing mode in our country to be more perfect and reasonable; On the other hand,it also puts forward higher requirements on construction enterprise. In the current under thebackground of informatization, standardization and transparency of the market, thecompetition between construction enterprises is the competition strength, for buildingenterprise want to in the fierce competition in the market can better survival and development,scientific cost management for construction project is particularly important, and costprediction is the core and basis of the cost management, and also strengthen the primary partof the cost control, and in the bidding based on bill of quantities valuation mode, theconstruction company before the bidding quotation reasonable projections for the cost ofconstruction project has become a very important work. Therefore, in light of the presentcondition of the construction project cost management in our country, in order to meet theneeds of the development of new construction market, this paper carried out the constructionproject cost prediction based on exponential smoothing research work.Because there are many factors that can affect project cost, make the construction projectcost prediction itself there are many uncertainties, the construction project cost predictionaccuracy to bring very great difficulty. This paper from the domestic and foreign researchstatus of construction project cost prediction, this paper analyzes the advantages anddisadvantages of the traditional method of cost prediction. Article on the basis ofpredecessors’ research, avoid the traditional prediction method of slow and low accuracy ofshortcomings, based on the theory of the exponential smoothing method, fuzzy mathematicsdegree of normalized as smooth index after processing, reasonable combines fuzzymathematics and exponential smoothing method, and at the same time, considering thebuilding time factor’s influence on the construction project cost prediction, reasonableconstruction cost index can be incorporated into the construction project cost predictionmodel of correction, put forward the construction project cost prediction model based onexponential smoothing. To overcome the past traditional construction project cost predictionmethod is insufficient, to a certain extent, greatly improving the speed and accuracy of costprediction. Finally through the concrete case detection of the construction project cost prediction model, proved that the construction project cost prediction method in the researchand application has very important theoretical significance and practical value.