A Reasonable Cost In The Bill Of Quantities Mode Prediction

With the development of construction market, the tradition mode of rating valuation has not met the needs of market-based economic development. At present, in order to meeting the construction cost need formed by market in construction bid competition, we must reformed the current project pricing method and project detailed estimate norm, and implement the valuation of bill of quantities. The valuation mode of bill of quantities is the mode that is in conformity with market economy allowing contractor unit to offer price independently, determining price through market competition, and integrated into international practice.With the market develop step and step and the popularization of the model of quantity sheet figure, bid and calling for bid must be operated according to international practice. So "Winning bid with the minimum price" will be main method to judge bid. The crucial problems existing in using bill valuation mode is the construction enterprises should calculate the biding price based on their own ration, but the widely construction enterprises have not construct their own enterprise ration today. The study in this paper is how to determine the rational cost price quickly and scientifically.First of all, the text analyses the constitute of engineering cost from the basic conception of engineering cost, which supply the analysis foundation for accuracy forecast engineering cost. And put forward to construction cost will be calculated based on bill valuation, average society cost and the component cost .The second is the text make use of fuzzy mathematics and exponential smoothing technology, set up the mathematical model of engineering cost. In accordance with the author's practical experience in frame construction cost, set up the coefficient chart of fuzzy characteristics relation, as a result, which compare precise ascertain the grade of membership of engineering characterization. Thereby come to the purpose of short-time forecast engineering cost. This part is core and main viewpoint of the author. Finally, the reliability is certificated with engineering example.Finally, this paper discussed the prospect and problems in fuzzy forecasting technique of engineering rational cost, pointed out the direction and emphasis in order to make this technique more perfect and mature, enter market and utility, and facilitate the bid and judging bid.