Study On Flood Forecasting Model And Plan For Leli River Basin

Flood forecasting plays important role in reservoir operation, water resources allocation, flood resource utilization, disaster prevention and mitigation and has always been the research focus of experts and scholars at home and abroad. Perfect flood forecasting system has been set up for the major rivers and their main tributaries in China. While the flood control standard is generally low for small and medium-sized watershed. So the flood control research of small and medium-sized watershed needs to be made thorough study. These watersheds have a great number, widely distributed, with complex flood characteristics. The flood always have a short source and fast flow with great intensity and short time range, hard to forecast.This paper chose Tianlin hydrological station control section of Leli river basin in Baise city, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as an object of study, collected the hydrological data, terrain, geology, remote sensing, hydraulic engineering information, analysed the flood characteristic and mechanism of Leli river. The peak stage of several flood process were calculated in empirical correlation method, multivariate regression analysis method and xinan’jiang model method.For empirical correlation method, this paper calculated two kinds of situations:The correlation between rain sum before maximum weighted average rainfall of four rainfall stations arrived and the corresponding peak stage, and the multi-factor sympodium correlation for rainfall and peak stage. For multivariate regression analysis method, this paper calculated the peak stage of each flood with the rain sum of each rainfall station as key impacting indicator before maximum weighted average rainfall of four rainfall stations arrived. This paper built xin’an jiang model for the flood forecast of Tianlin station located on Leli river basin based on its DEM information, analysed and processed the rainfall, evaporation, flow rate data of control section in2005～2009, established different flood forecast schemes for different forecast models, assessed the forecast accuracy of them, chose the optimization for Leli river basin.