Research Of Risk Assessment In Subway Construction Projects Based On Bayesian Network

With the fast development of subway construction in China, the risk managementof subway projects has become a subject which many scholars are researchingintensively. During the construction stage, there exist many risk events and risk factors,and they take a really important role in the risk management. Because the influencecaused by different kinds of risk factors and the complexity and uncertainty of specificconstruction surroundings, many problems the construction managers may encounterduring the process of risk management must be solved. Therefore, using effective andpractical ways to identify and evaluate the risk status can not only recognize thepresent construction risk status but also instruct subsequent work such as risk controland so on.Risk identification is elaborated, based on the analysis of types of risk accidents inconstruction of subways. Risk factors which can influence the risk standard has beenorganized and classified. And by analyzing subway accidents, risk factors can beclassified. The risk factors’ degree of influence to the integrate construction stage canbe measured in three dimensions, which are risk probabilities, risk loss and risk control.And based on TOPSIS method, more useful factors can be selected from variousmembers of factors, thus establishing the evaluation index system.The Bayesian network can be utilized to solve problems concerning riskassessments in construction. According to characters of construction risks in subways,the whole risk standard can be considered in risk probability, risk loss and risk controland these three aspects determine the degree how construction risk will be.Assessments of risk probabilities of many risk factors can be finished on the basis ofBayesian network, and assessments of risk loss and risk control can be calculated usingthe method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. At last, conclusions and researchresults are mentioned and some work needed to be done to enrich and deepen theresearch is put forward.