Research On Large-scale Regional Electric Passenger Vehicle Load Estimation

Along with continuous development of electric vehicle (EV) technology and charging facilities, EV will be used more and more widely in citizen lives. When the number of EV increases to a certain scale, the huge charging load of EV will become an important part of grid load. In order to ensure the grid meet the charging needs of EVs, avoiding and reducing their adverse effects on the normal operation of grid, it is necessary to study the charging load estimation methods of regional electric passenger. It’s the basis of electric passenger charge control and energy management. EV charging stations is an important support system for electric vehicles industry. Although EV is still in demonstration operation stages, but in its extensive application prospect, it’s necessary to allocate charging facilities scientifically and reasonably.This paper analyzes the travel characteristics of fuel taxis and fuel cars. Assume that the travel characteristics of electric car will not change when electric cars alternative fuel vehicles, we can get electric charge characteristics of passenger car. The results showed that there are differences between the electric cars and electric taxi in the terms of distribution of the beginning of the charging time and mileage.According to the randomness of electric taxi charging characteristics, the paper use a statistical modeling method based on probability model. Then a segmental probability estimation model of electric taxi load is build. The electric vehicle’s power demand is solved by Monte Carlo simulation. Combined with the electric taxi charge operating data of a Southern city, comparing with the taxi estimation charging load and the actual load, the results show that the segmental probability estimation model is credible.Combined with the method of electric passenger charging load estimation, we can get large-scale regional electric passenger car charging load in2015and2020. The results show that, the EV charging load proportion of power grid load is not big.By analyzing the characteristics of EVs’ charging behavior, a queuing model for charging facilities’ service system for EV based on queuing theory is established. On this basis, an optimal cost model for electric vehicle charging facilities is developed with the minimum of the total cost of service system as the objective function.