Study On Typical Grassland Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation Method

Typical grassland is not only the important animal husbandry base in China, butalso the ecological barrier to the north area of China, so researching the water resourcescarrying capacity in typical grassland is very significant for promoting the pastoraleconomic and social development and protecting the ecological balance. Considering tothe natural condition of less precipitation and more vulnerability ecology in typicalgrassland and the need of agriculture and industry development, the research of theevaluation methods of water resources carrying capacity in typical grassland is studiedin this paper.Based on the domestic and aboard research progress about water resourcescarrying capacity, the definition and intension of water resources carrying capacity intypical grassland area is given, and the main influence factors of water resourcescarrying are divided as subjective, objective and coupling effect.Considering the advantage and disadvantage of present evaluation method and thepresent requirement of pastoral sustainable development, three evaluation methods areestablished. These methods are index system based on fuzzy analyzing, water resourcescarrying calculation model, water resources dynamic carrying based on GIS,The three methods are used to evaluation the present situation of water resourcescarrying in Damao Country in2009, the evaluation results of three evaluation methodshow that the water resources carrying of Damao Country is at a weakness level ingeneral。With the protection of grassland ecology and achievement of social and economicdevelopment, five development patterns are designed to simulate the future change ofwater resources, economy, society, ecology and environment subsystem, and theevaluation results show that B-2, which is carrying the strict water resources regime, isthe best pattern for improving water resources carrying in typical grassland.