Research Of Shandong Power Grid Wind Power Prediction

In recent years, wind power has been developing rapidly in our country. Large-scale wind power integration has brought challenges for power system dispatching and electricity market management since the output of wind power is characterized by intermittency, fluctuation and anti-peaking when compared with conventional power sources. In Shandong power grid, large-scale wind power integration has seriously influenced the safe and stable operation of power system. Thus, to enhance the study of wind power prediction in Shandong power grid is of great importance for generation scheduling, the safe and stable operation of power system, reduction of operation cost and reserve capacity of thermal power units, effective management of electricity market and so on.Firstly, based on the comprehensive overview of the development of wind power prediction both at home and abroad, classification of wind power prediction methods and impacts of numerical weather prediction on wind power prediction are described in detail in this paper. Typical wind farm is selected according to features of wind farms in Shandong power grid such as climate, landscape and operation condition, then a short-term wind power prediction model is built using statistical techniques and physical approaches while an ultra-short-term wind power prediction model is built using time series analysis method. The prediction accuracy is improved by adopting the area wind power prediction technique based on extrapolation of the typical wind farm. Secondly, error band prediction based on wind process method and power level division method is applied to reduce the uncertainty of wind power prediction results. Finally, technology supporting platform based on the smart grid dispatching, the scheme, structure, basic functions and the necessary technologies of wind power prediction in Shandong power grid are given in this paper.In summary, the study of wind power prediction in Shandong power grid not only can provide a basis for the day-ahead scheduling, online rolling power scheduling as well as the real-time power dispatching but also can supply key technical support for maximizing the wind power integration capacity and regulating the operation mode of thermal power units reasonably in Shandong power grid. As can be seen from the operation results, the accuracy is satisfactory for practice; the operation cost and reserve capacity of thermal power units are reduced; the wind power can be dispatched and managed scientifically; the safe and stable operation of power system is guaranteed.