Risk Evaluation And Zonation Of Southern Yunnan Rubber Chilling Injury Based On GIS

Hot work area of southern Yunnan province is the country’s major rubber plantations due to its unique geographical and climatic environment. The complex terrain of Yunnan is mostly mountains, its climate is different in different area of the mountain. The low temperature chilling injury is the main meteorological disaster for rubber production in Yunnan. Therefore, rubber chilling injury risk assessment and zoning in the southern region of Yunnan is conductive to give full play to the advantages of climatic resource of southern Yunnan province, adjust the planting layout, optimize the industrial structure, achieve good quality and high yield, promote scientific and rational development of the rubber economy; meanwhile, it also help government to plan to take precautions against natural calamities.Based on the system theory of natural disasters, taking the climate, geographical background and social environment that lead to rubber chilling injury for consideration, this paper selects the environmental sensitivity, susceptibility, vulnerability and the capability of natural disasters prevention and reduction as four factors affecting rubber chilling injury, then, combined with statistical methods and risk assessment model, use GIS technology to achieve the rubber chilling injury risk assessment and zoning. The results show that:(1) The distribution regularities of dangerousness of environmental disaster in the south of Yunnan province is:the most dangerous zones are Wenshanzhou, Zhenkang and Gengma; next are Jinping, Pingbian, Mengzi, Gejiu, Kaiyuan, Mile, Luxi, Qiubei, Menghai, Baoshan, Lincang and Dehongzhou; then are the midland of Yunnan which contains of most region of Pu’er city, Shiping, Honghe, Lvping and some region of the west of Xishuangbanna; the most safe zones are Menglian, Pu’er, Nanxi, Mengsong, Menglong, Dadugang, Puwen, Mengla, Mengyang, Hexi and Ximen.(2) The distribution regularities of the susceptibility to cold disaster is:the lowest susceptibility area:Lincang＞Baoshan＞Dehong＞Xishuangbanna＞Honghe ＞Wenshan＞Pu’er, the lower susceptibility area:Lingcang＞Dehong＞Baoshan＞Wenshan＞Honghe＞Pu’er＞Xishuangbanna; the medium susceptibility area:Pu’er＞Wenshan＞Dehong＞Honghe＞Xishuangbanna＞Lincang＞Baoshan; the higher susceptibility area:Pu’er＞Wenshan＞Xishuangbanna＞Honghe＞Lincang＞Baoshan＞Dehong; the highest susceptibility area:Xishuangbanna＞Pu’er＞Honghe＞Wenshan＞Baoshan＞Dehong＞Lincang.(3) The main areas of the highest vulnerability to disaster are Mengla(in Xishuangbanna) and Jiangcheng(in Pu’er) where have large grow rubber area. The areas with higher vulnerability to disaster are Menglun (which belong to Xishuangbanna province), Mojian(which belong to Pu’er) and Lvchun(which belong to Honghe). The areas with medium vulnerability to disaster are Zhenyuan, Pu’er, Gejiu, Honghe, Xingmen and so on. The areas that less vulnerability to disaster are bigger, which contains of the midland of Pu’er, the west part of Xishuangbanna, northeast of Honghe, and some areas of Lincang and Wenshan. The areas that nearly have no vulnerability to disaster contains of the most area of Baoshan, Dehong and Wenshan, some area of Menglian, Menghai, Menghai and Jinghong.(4) Wenshan has the highest capability to prevention and reduction of natural disasters. Baoshan and Honghe have higher capability to prevention and reduction of natural disasters. The capability to prevention and reduction of natural disasters of Xishuangbanna is medium. The capability to prevention and reduction of natural disasters of Lincang is lower than Xishuangbanna. Dehong and Pu’er have the lowest capability to prevention and reduction of natural disasters.In general, the area that grow rubber with least risk of cold disaster is13808.02km2, which is7.45percentages of the total study areas; the area that with less risk of cold disaster is55610.77km2, which is30.00percentages of the total study areas; the area that with higher risk of cold disaster is49179.08km2, which is26.53percentages of the total study areas; the area that with highest risk of cold disaster is23951.72km2, which is12.92percentages of the total study areas. The proportion of different levels that risk of cold disaster is:the lowest risk areas:Xishuangbanna＞Pu’er＞ wenshan＞Honghe＞Baoshan＞Lincang＞Dehong; the lower risk areas:Pu’er＞Wenshan＞Honghe＞Xishuangbanna＞Baoshan＞Lincang＞Dehong; the medium risk areas:Pu’er＞Honghe＞Wenshan＞Lincang＞Baoshan＞Xishuangbanna＞Dehong; the higher risk areas:Pu’er＞Wenshan＞Lincang＞Honghe＞Baoshan＞Dehong＞Xishuangbanna; the highest areas:Pu’er＞Honghe＞Wenshan＞Lincang＞Baoshan＞Dehong＞Xishuangbanna.