Human And Animals Brucellosis Epidemic Space And Time Trend Analysis And Their Correlation Study

Brucellosis is one of zoonotic and natural iatrogenic diseases, it is B type notifiable infectious disease of human and animal in China. It can seriously threaten animal husbandry development, import and export trade, cause huge economic losses. Meanwhile, it can cause multiple organ damage to human, especially to movement and reproductive systems, leading to brucellosis outbreak and epidemic. Since2000, brucellosis epidemic in China is quickly increased, incidence of human brucellosis is rising rapidly, and epidemic area is expanding unceasingly. Animals and animal products is the main way to spread brucellosis to people, so the control of animal brucellosis can reduce the risk of human brucellosis outbreak. This study from two aspects on time and space using a variety of modeling method, comprehensive analysis of national human and animal brucellosis epidemic data, study human and animal brucellosis distribution characteristics and trends in time and space, to provide a scientific basis for Brucellosis prevention and control.The results are as follows:1. Human brucellosis epidemic incidence is rising, the age group of the average annual growth rate higher than20%show as follow:75-79(31.09%),80-84(30.76%),60-64(29.48%),2(27.07%),65-69(25.72%),45-49(21.74%), and0(21.67%); incidence of brucellosis in23provinces or cities is rising, incidence of brucellosis average annual growth rate higher than50%including Ningxia (112.52%), Gansu (66.93%), Guangdong (60.93%),Zhejiang (58.01%) and Anhui (52.49%);5kinds of occupational number of cases constituent ratio is increasing, they are the medical staff (11.11%), food staff (7.86%) houseworkers and unemployed workers(7.28%), peasants (1.66%),scattered children(0.92%); Time series analysis method is adopted to establish the best forecasting model ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)12model,fitting degree is0.965; human brucellosis spatial autocorrelation results showed the epidemic hot spot area including Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Shanxi and Hebei province.2. AR (1) time series model is established to forecast animal brucellosis epidemic, and its fitting degree is0.438; Trend surface analysis shows animal brucellosis epidemic has a rising tendency to north-west; Space scanning has scanned two zones of animal brucellosis epidemic: one cluster is centered on the Guangxi zhuang autonomous region, radius of1675.06km, including17provinces, and another cluster is centered on Liaoning province, radius of610.40km, including3provinces.3. ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)12model fits well, taking case number of animal brucellosis as the independent variable,its fitting degree is0.877; Bivariate spatial correlation result show that Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangdong province are low-low brucellosis cluster.