Research On Predicting The Pests’ Distribution In Grain Storage

China is a country with large population and grain is the most important thing to it. Unfortunately, due to pests in grain storage, the amount of grain every year has great loss. There is a great need to research on the pests which can be beneficial to predict the group distribution, group development and eliminate them.This essay discusses the importance of predicting the pests’development in grain storage in society, economy and so on. According to their characteristic, the essay analyses some pests’growth. Then the essay combs the predicting models in history and introduces experience predicting, experiment predicting, statistics predicting and information predicting and introduces two predicting method in detail,including its advantages and disadvantages. Information predicting mostly need a lot of data, predictive model parameters is too complex to be sure. This essay introduces two types of information predictive models which need samples. The number of sample must be proper. Small sample size is not accurate for the experiment and large samples means large computation. So it proposes a prediction method based on cellular automata to imitate the group development combined with the pest’s characteristic.The essay imitates a pest’s growth in two dimensions; then the parameters are changed and it comes to a conclusion that in proper environment the pest can develop very quickly and its group can fill in all the space. Ten it builds models for two competitive pests based on cellular automata theory. From the experiment, it comes to a conclusion that the beginning parameters can affect the outcome. Then it builds models for another two pests and sees that with the change of temperature, the group distribution can change too.Next based on two-dimensional analog, we do the experiment in three dimensions, plus the temperature and humidity. In the procedure, the essay takes some notes and put forward that the pests can’t exist even one condition is not proper.At last it pluses the temperature and height of the grain parameters and makes a comparative experiment.The pests group development has great relationship with the two parameters mentioned above The environment has great influence on the pests’growth.The imitation and the experiment comply with each other and prove that cellular automata can correctly and properly imitate the pests’ development and it is a direct, effective method.