Effect Of Climatic Factors Change In The21^StCentury On The Growth And Yield Of Wheat In Chongqing

Future climate change will have a serious impact on China’s agriculture and increase instability of agricultural production. Yield will increase volatility, and agricultural production layout, structure and production conditions will change. What’s more, the cost of agriculture and investment will have a substantial increase. Model simulations is an important means to study the impact of climate change on crop and is the main way to assess the future impact of climate change on agriculture. In this paper, Ecosys was used for simulating the variation of climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) in the21st century effect on growth and yield of wheat. Based on climatic data during2007～2008, the temperature was increased1.0～3.1℃and was decreased1.0～2.0℃, annual precipitation was increased by2%and was decreased5%.Of which four cases were simulated, and simulation results was analyzed and evaluated. Then putting forward the suggestions and Countermeasures to deal with these four extreme climatic factors change. The main results are as follows:1. Overall, precipitation and light are suitable in the whole growth stage in2007and2008.Temperature is slightly higher than the optimum temperature, and simulation on the basis of climatic data in2007and2008is more reasonable.2. The effects of different meteorological factors on farmland ecosystems are different. When temperature increased1.0～3.1℃, soil moisture level reduced about0.005m3/m3, and canopy water potential dropped0.01MPa～0.15MPa, and the carbon content of the wheat reduced45g C/m2, and the carbon content of the grain reduced10g C/m2.When temperature decreased1.0～2.0℃, there was little change in soil moisture, and canopy water potential increased approximately0.05MPa, the carbon content of the plants and grains grew30g C/m2and lOg C/m2.When precipitation increased by2%, the biggest impact on wheat is the carbon content of the plants reducing0.1g C/m2. When precipitation decreased by5%, the impact on wheat wasn’t obvious.3.The strength of meteorological factors impacting wheat yield are:temperature> precipitation. Temperature changes cause two different results, but precipitation changes cause the similar results. When temperature increased1～3.1℃, the growth period shortened about20days. The average temperature increased by1℃, the growing period would short10days. The tillering, jointing, heading, flowering of wheat was early maturity.The yield decreased100kg/hm2. When temperature decreased1.0～2.0℃,4. Proposed major suggestions to address climate change:strengthen publicity and education to improve the ability of farmers to respond to climate change; research to meteorological disasters, climate change; adjustment crop planting structure and reform farming system; strengthen agricultural infrastructure construction, develop water-saving agriculture; strengthen plant protection work to improve crop resilience.