The Impact Of Climate Change On Wheat Yield In China

Climate change characterized by global warming draws attentions from all over the world. The series of climate changes will threaten human beings and natural ecosystem,such as the increased temperature, unstable and uneven precipitation, increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate.Agriculture, a production department limited mostly by climate conditions, is also one of the most sensitive and fragile department under the influence of climate change. The temperature and precipitation which agricultural production depends on,especially changes of temperature and precipitation and increased frequency of extreme climate, may lead to reduction of crops,even worse, the devastating damage of agriculture. Wheat, as one of the three food crop, will be influenced by the changes of climate. Thus, it is urgently needed to understand the the impact of climate change on wheat and the direction.According to above background, this paper builds C-D-C production function model to do quantitative analysis of influence of climate changes on wheat depends on describing the history development of temperature, precipitation and changes of wheat production.The result are like followings:(1) In the recent 63 years, the annual temperature in China is on the rise, and the annual temperature rises about 0.18? every 10 years and the changes of temperature show significant differences in different areas; annual precipitation continues downward trend,but the rend is not significant. From the perspective of precipitation anomaly from different years, the year-by-year rain fall fluctuation is strong and different areas have different fluctuation. In the light of natural disaster, from the1970 s, the rend of natural disaster-affected rate and natural disaster-suffering rate is basically the same. The affected rate and suffering rate of natural disaster show increasing trend from 1970 s to 1990 s, and show downward trend after 2000. However, the natural disaster-affected rate was high which means that agriculture in China still under the influence of natural disaster.(2) Regarded collectively, the influence of temperature on wheat production is not obvious but the annual precipitation is good for the volume increase of wheat and elastic coefficient of the rainfall is 0.042. According to the different areas, there is a clear differences between southern areas and northern areas. In southern areas, the temperature influence on wheat is positive but not significant, but the effect of precipitation on wheat is positive and the coefficient is-0.1. While in northern area, the effect of temperature on wheat is positive but not significant but the influence of precipitation on wheat is positive and its coefficient reaches 0.043. It illustrates that there exists an optional range of the influence of temperature and precipitation on wheat production. If the influences beyond the optional range, it will do harm to the increase of wheat production.(3) hazard-rate has significant influence on increasing wheat production and elastic coefficient reaches-0.3.According to the conclusion,relevant countermeasures of wheat to climate change and meteorological disasters were put forward.