Prediction Of Suitable Distribution Area And Risk Analysis Of Six Important Fruit Flies

Fruit flies are considered as the key pests that negatively affect the production and marketing of fruits and vegetables around the world. As quarantine pests, they are forbidden entering into China. The risk analysis and the prediction of suitable distribution areas of six species of fruit files, including Bactrocera cucurbitae, B. tau, B. latifrons, B. zonata, B. diaphora and B. invadens, were carried out in this paper, which provide theoretical reference to the department of inspection and quarantine for establishing quarantine and control measures.In this paper, MaxEnt Ecological Niche Modeling and ArcGIS geographic information system were used. The survival regions for six species of fruit files in China were forecasted by combining the database of current distribution latitude and longitude of fruit flies with the environmental variables of practical regions to construct the fruit flies survival region model. The environment data effecting survival condition of fruit flies (rainfall, temperature, altitude) were used as the model variable. At the same time, the potential distribution areas of six species of fruit flies in China were forecasted by locating the places which was the most similar with existing areas.19environment factors in the MaxEnt model were analyzed, respectively. At last, these survival regions were divided and the survival indexs were graded by ArcGIS (Geographic Information System). Three alternative schemes of risk management were proposed and discussed one by one.The results showed that the six species of fruit flies mainly distributed in the south of China, such as the south of Xizang province, the south of Sichuan province, Guangdong province, Fujian province, Yunnan province, Taiwan province, and so on. These regions are near the tropic of Cancer and the climate is mainly tropical or subtropical type. Among six species of fruit flies, B. tau distributes widest in China, followed by the B. cucurbitae, B. cucurbitae, B. latifrons, B. zonata, B. diaphora and B. invadens in the descending order of distribution range. Comparing the three alternative projects, the third one was the most practical and should be adopted.