Research On Prediction And Alarm Of Hyphantria Cunea Drury In Hebei

In this paper, Hebei Province, within the risk analysis of Hyphantria cunea, the occurrence of the forecast, the establishment of early warning system and early warning systems were studied. According to the survey and literature research, the use of GARP niche models to predict the fall webworm in China suitable area, and on this basis the risk of harmful organisms with reference to quantitative analysis methods, the risk of Hyphantria cunea in Hebei Province to make a comprehensive evaluation; According to the biological characteristics of Hyphantria cunea, combined with meteorological data and The Forest Pest Management and Quarantine Station in Hebei Province to provide data based on the use of regression analysis, Population base method, Markov chain method, fuzzy mathematical method for the sample period of study of the occurrence of the scope and probability of occurrence; taking into account police sources, warning signs, police and other elements of the situation based on early warning indicators of Hyphantria cunea and use Visual Studio 2005 development environment for the establishment of early warning systems for forecasting Hyphantria cunea , made the following findings:1 the study of Hyphantria cunea in China suitable area shows that the forecast: Hyphantria cunea in China suitable area range: 21.20°N ~ 46.33°N, 97.80°E ~ 132.11°E and 36.81°N ~ 41.8°5N, 76.00°E ~ 94.66°E (part of the Xinjiang province). Hyphantria cunea in China will be the potential suitable area is divided into the most suitable Health Area, at suitable area, semi-suitable and non-suitable areas, and predict the results of fit test to prove that the optimal model choice with significant statistical significance.2 Forecasting pest integrated pest management is an important component of the insect is a monitor the future trend of population changes in the important work. In some areas of Hebei , through the study of the scope of Hyphantria cunea occurs, the forecast probability of occurrence, providing a view to a correct estimation of the Hyphantria cunea for The Forest Pest Management and Quarantine Station to get the trend of the future for reference.3 to establish an early warning indicator system cunea direct and objective reflection of the process of pest occurrence or potential is the result of the impact of disasters, the characteristics of the different attributes of the indicators. These early warning indicators in the process of Hyphantria cunea pest disasters have described the results of the evaluation, the future development of early warning function.4 Hyphantria cunea forecast system to achieve an early warning system for all cunea digitized historical data storage, information management and statistical analysis automation. System of collection of geographical information systems, information transmission network in Hebei Province has carried out within the Hyphantria cunea colonization analysis, early warning monitoring the forecast, the function of dissemination of early warning information. System is simple, has a strong practical.