Stochastic Analysis Of Disability Status Transition Of Chinese Elderly Population

Capturing disability status transition of elderly population is the technical foundation of elderly care service system construction and system arrangements. And it is also the premise of several academic issues in old age security. So it has always been an important topic in the international academia of old age security. In the past, due to the lack of authoritative data, Chinese academia and relevant departments often use foreign disability status transition of elderly to research Chinese issues and make policies. With aging population and family miniaturization, China urgently needs to seek its own disability status transition of elderly population. Based on the Longitudinal Survey of The Aged Population in Urban/Rural China, this paper use a series of analysis tools to seek out disability status transition of Chinese elderly population and its application.First of all. we start our research by classifying disability based on international experience and the longitudinal survey. Based on the classification of disability status, we build a continuous-time markov model to describe the process of disability status transition, compute the transition probabilities between the2006-2010investigations and estimate transition intensities. Then, we use the Makeham hypothesis to do graduation of the intensities and examine our research result through comparing the mortality rates from our research with the one from a large-scale investigation, the2010Population Census of The People’s Republic of China. At last, we make a prediction of disability elderly people in China from2011to2015using the disability status transition intensities curve.