Optimum Population Capacity Research Of Xining City

The population carrying capacity is a strategic issue during the urban development process. The urban population bearing capacity is influenced by the urban land resources, water resources, ecological environment and socio-economic development level. Under limited natural resources and socio-economic conditions, the population too much or too little will affect urban development. Only when the population is maintained in moderate range will the city’s economy and society be all-round developed. Due to the necessity of sustainable development between city resources, population and ecological environment, urban population carrying capacity research is indispensable in future urban planning.The optimum population research progress at home and abroad and the theoretical basis were systematically analyzed and summarized firstly. Then an empirical study of urban optimum population was done in Xining City on this basis. First, a quantitative study was made to forecast population sizes of2015and2020of Xining. Calculating the optimum population of Xining city under the conditions of water resources, urban construction land and socio-economic constraints by the single fact analysis method and the EOP-MM model. Then compared the optimum population under these three constraint of Xining city with the actual population in2011and the predict population of Xining city in2015,2020, analysis the coordination among the population,the resources, the environment. At last, this paper analyze the shortest side by the Short-side analysis. The conclusions are as follows:1The size of the population maintain an orderly and stable development of Xining City in the next period of time without special events (such as sudden natural disasters, large-scale population movements, etc.). In2015, the volume of population would reach about2.36millions, and it would reach2.51millions in2020.2In2011, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is12.283millions under the constraints of the urban construction land; In2015, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is14.152millions; In2020, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is15.335millions, There is a big potential for the development of the Optimum Population in Huangzhong, Huangyuan and Datong three counties; In2011, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is13.102millions under the constraints of the per-capita living space; In2015, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is15.095millions; In2020, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is16.375millions, There is a big potential for the development of the Optimum Population in Huangzhong, Huangyuan and Datong three counties; In2011, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is5.896millions under the constraints of the per-capita green area; In2015, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is6.793millions; In2020, the optimum population capacity of Xining downtown is7.361millions. The optimum population of Xining downtown is overload under the per-capita green area, There is a big potential for the development of the Optimum Population in Huangzhong, Huangyuan and Datong three counties.3The optimum population capacity of Xining City in2011reach to20.329millions under the influence of the water resources and ecological environment; In2015, the optimum population capacity will reach21.056millions; In2020, the water resources moderate population capacity will reach21.782millions; The optimum population capacity of the socio-economic conditions of Xining City in2011is20.320millions, The optimum population capacity of the socio-economic conditions of Xining City in2015and2020will reach522.853millions and243.34millions respectively.4Based on the short side effects, The water resource and green area are the main impact that limit the development of the optimum population capacity of Xining City at this stage. In future, water resources will be the main impact that limit the development of the optimum population capacity of Xining City.