The Research On The Coordination Development Of Population And Resources Environment In Nanjing City

This paper, which take ecological carrying capacity as research object, forecasts the total quantity of the population in Nanjing in the next ten years adopting the population poly-factor method and raise the problems that Nanjing confronts in the population development. At the same time, this paper uses the ecological footprint model to analyze and evaluate the coordinated development of population and environment of Nanjing and points out the problems faced in the development. In addition, combining with the current conditions of local resources, environmental and economy development, this paper establish the relevant analysis model using the method of land carrying capacity, water carrying capacity and economic optimum population to predict and analyze the population carrying capacity in the following ten years in Nanjing as well as make recommendations on the coordinated development of population, resources and environment. The main conclusions are as follows:First, there are many ways to predict the future population development. Poly-factor predicting method is adopted in this paper, which contributes to the conclusion that in 2010, the population in Nanjing will reach 8.22 million,10.47million in 2020.Second, using ecological footprint model to analyze and appraise the coordinated and sustainable development of population, resource and environment in Nanjing, the results manifests the following facts:The per capita ecological carrying capacity is on a downward trend while the upward trend.of per capita ecological footprint is more obvious; The per capita ecological deficit increases significantly; the direct cause for the inharmonious development of population, resource and environment is the excessive growth of population and the ecological deficit resulted from energy consumption, and the trend will continue in the future.Third, through the calculation and analysis on comprehensive carrying capacity and economic moderate population, finally it can be comprehensively predicted that population carrying capacity will be 6.8million in 2010 in Nanjing, in 2020, it will be 6027 million. It is found in the research that the population carrying capacity in the coordinated and sustainable development of population, resource and environment is less than the predicted population scale. The pressure resulted from future population quantity is still great on the carrying capacity of resource and environment.