Analysis Of Regional Development In The Population Carrying Capacity And Optimum Population

The problem of population capacity (carrying capacity) and optimum population are sensitive and crucial when we explore the principle of population development and change. The investigation will impact on comprehending population development trend, the establishment and implement of the policy of population and family planning, the decision of population and economic development programming, the endeavor for the harmony development of population and environment and resource and the sustainable development of society and economy. The studies of population capacity play an important role on understanding the truth of regional population press and exposing the essence of population distribution. Furthermore, it can provide scientific basis for regional population migration and the policy of population redistribution and the program of population and economy development.In our study, we attempt to ascertain the frame and method of the condition for sustainable development on the level of regional scale, consequently provide usable reference for similar study so as to the system and method of carrying capacity. We discussed the moderate scale of population for a region with systematic and genera point and proposed the criterion for its dynamic change with conception and quantitative method.On the basis of previous classical population theories and models, we refer many methods for predicting population capacity and optimum population and we apply the multi-methods to presuming the regional reasonable population scale. We analysis the population capacity with adopting the combination of qualitative with quantitative and theory with practice and time with space, thus compare with the optimum population and propose the solution for controlling population scale. The conclusions are as follows:1. We predict the scale of Yizheng population with the average of Malthusian population model and Logistic model. The result is that the population of Yizheng will increase to 0.6133 million by 2010 and 0.6209 million by 2020.2. We predict the population carrying capacity of Yizheng with three aspects: land, employment and landscape. We attain the carrying capacity of Yizheng is 0.6606 million in 2010 and 0.6723 in 2020.3. Considering the limited land resource and GDP value, we attain the relative carrying capacity of Yizheng to Yangzhou is 0.6218 million in 2004 and 0.5263 million in 2010. It indicates that the present develop progress of Yizheng is lagging behind Yangzhou.4. We calculate the optimum population of Yizheng with the method of possibility-satisfaction degree and the result is 0.6068 million when the degree is 0.6.5. Whereas the question above mentioned, we propose that enhancing the progress of economy development should be undertaken overwhelmingly in Yizheng, especially developing the second and third industry. Regulation should be fulfilled to control the population scale of Yizheng under the level of optimum population calculated as 0.6068 million for the sake of optimal development situation of society and economy.