An Analysis Of Athletic Performance Trend Of National Indoor Track And Field Championships And Its Study With Grey Predication

Track and Field as one of the most primitive and oldest sport events has been honored as the "Mother of Movement". Athletic sports developing rapidly with the explosive development of science and technology, much more attention has been paid to the athletic performance in world major sport events. Track and Field takes up most gold medals in the Olympics and athlete’s competitive level plays a vital role in the country’s status in the world sports.The development of indoor Track and Field provides a good medium for Track and Field progress and a display platform to show personal competence for athletes from Europe or even the whole world. It can be seen from the match score that many excellent Track and Field athletes from all over the world participate in the indoor events held around the world. They improve constantly and deliver good results. Our country has only each year three stations of indoor Track and Field events at present stage and athletes’enthusiasm in participation is low. That causes the significant results difference between stations and uneven athlete levels. Indoor Track and Field development is thus constrained; hence the poor result of outdoor events.A large number of document literature show that scholars of our country have done much research on the development laws of Track and Field results, but most of them focus on that in large outdoor events like the National Games, the Asian Games, and the Olympics and the research findings they get have much in common:while there are less research on basic training and development laws of indoor Track and Field results.Taking the average scores of the top athletes in national Track and Field Championships from2005to2013as the research subjects, this paper utilizes the literature data, mathematical statistics, logical analysis and gray predication method. The development coefficient table, progressive coefficient table, the chain dynamic map, the fixed base dynamic map are used to analyze the average scores correspondingly.The development coefficient of event results in national indoor Track and Field Championships indicate the general development tendency of Track and Field; the mean of the progressive coefficient reflects state of development and the standard deviation of that shows the development fluctuation range of each event; the chain dynamic map mirrors each year’s rise and fall of the match scores; the fixed base dynamic map based on some year’s value tells the developing roadmap of results. By using Grey GM (1,1) model, this paper will predicate the athletic results of2014and2015, verify the results of2014predicated and figure out the forecast accuracy of athletic results of2015. Accurate predication about results helps each team make clear the development of their strongholds and potentials, and it is beneficial for coaches and athletes to set training goals and make training plans scientifically.Two tables and two maps show clear the development tendency of each event in national indoor Track and Field championship, and the dynamic process of development, conducive to a full and detailed understanding of the development of national indoor Track and Field Championship. From the tables and maps, the results of rises of men’s events are bigger than those of women’s. Women’s events in100m,800m,1500m and triple jump see a high fluctuation. Though the result of women’s100m in2013breaks the record, the general result of women’s events in recent years is a downward trajectory. Among speedy items, men’s200m and60m hurdles, women’s60m and60m hurdles generally develop better than others. In endurance events, men’s results rise slowly while women’s general result goes into a fall.In strength events, both two height events and two distance events develop in similar tendency. The result rise of high jump is bigger than that of pole vault, and the result rise of long jump is bigger than that of triple jump. The result of shot put is in the middle level compared with other strength events, among which the general level of women’s shot put is higher than that of men.Prediction of the results of national indoor Track and Field shows:men’s track and field results have increased, men’s200m,400m, high jump and shot put with a large increase, men’s800m,1500m, pole vault with a small increase. Women’s events have increased such as women’s60m,60m hurdles,400m, high jump, long jump, pole vault and shot put, among which the results of women’s60m hurdles, high jump and long jump increase largely; while women’s400m and60m increase slightly. Women’s events have declined such as women’s200m,800m,1500m and triple jump. The results predicted show a decline but with a small range. Some events in recent years have been picking up, women’s200m in2013breaking the record and delivering good result, for example. The predication about results" rise and fall can not represent the results development tendency as a whole. It can only show the possible values of athletic results and be used as references.