Franchise Risk Management Based On Fault Tree Analysis TOT Project Financing Model

Infrastructure construction affects the entire social economic activities, it is also related to a country’s life, the first-class infrastructure construction in our country can not only promote the economic society development, but also beneficial to the increase in China’s overall strength. In recent years, the whole of China and even the whole Asia market, the rise of a compelling activity, that is, with the infrastructure of the investment and financing activities.And water industry as one of the fastest growing industries in the future, to get the attention of the countries all over the world. Water that has its nature, and its economic and social attribute, water is a city’s development and the people’s living lifeline. Water supply market has been an important part of the city infrastructure, water as the public infrastructure construction, we need to spend a lot of money, if only basing on the state and local government financing, it will be easy to cause the local government financial strain, and the management will lag behind. Many kinds of financing mode, like BOT,TOT and PPP, can reduce the government financial pressure, activate the state-owned assets, improve the infrastructure of the operation ability, also effectively avoid or reduce the construction, operation and management risk. TOT financing model relative to the other financing modes, it can obviously reduce project risk, especially for investors, the risks they will face is greatly reduced, and for the government, the possibility to succeed increase greatly. At the same time, TOT is no property rights, equity transfer, involves the legal link opposite less, so it is more simple and easy management.This paper based on a water industry in Guizhou of TOT financing mode, using the method of ZOPP-FTA, and analysis it from the point of view of qualitative and quantitative. The paper has six chapters:the first chapter mainly introduces the background of the thesis, purpose and meaning, the research content, technical route and innovation points, etc. The second chapter for related contents of the research dynamic at home and abroad, was including TOT financing mode, fault tree and the present situation of using the fault tree method research TOT financing mode. In the third chapter introduced the related theory, mainly introduced the theory of risk management in the TOT mode of charter period, introduced the theory of ZOPP method and the steps, the theory of fault tree method and tell the specific algorithm of relating qualitative and quantitative analysis. The fourth chapter is the case analysis, in this chapter, the first is through the use of ZOPP method, listing all the problems lists of water industry, application of the related problem matrix method to find the core problem and the main problems, and according to the problem of the relationship between the logic, draw the corresponding problems tree. After using ZOPP method to find the basis of core problem, as the top event of fault tree, then starting from the top event, respectively, to find out the among events and basic events causing of the incident, and from the qualitative (structural importance analysis), quantitative (top events probability, the probability importance, the critical importance) to carry on the analysis, find out the top of the effects of the event of larger risk factors. The fifth chapter is the conclusion of the paper, and the last chapter, expressed the author’s deficiency in the process of writing papers and the of the follow-up work on a prospect.