Research On Risk Financing Model Under TOT Highway Project Concession Period

At present, China is in a period of stable large-scale development, the continuous economic development requires the scale of the public infrastructure and he supporting project expanding. Public infrastructure has, to a certain extent, promoted the progress of economic and technology. In recent years, especially2011, the highway industry has more attention, especially the operational status and repayment of the toll road. Yun Nan Province referendum events,12provinces announcing the road toll details and so on prompted countries are also to put greater efforts to support and supervision on the highway. Highway toll policy changes as well as the transport sector budget increase, affecting the development of highway planning and adjustment of operating conditions. At present, China’s highway construction is still in the exploration and development stage, the project is gradually adopting the BOT, TOT, and the PPP and other forms attracting injection of social capital, multi-stakeholder risk-sharing model promotes the sustainability of the project. But in the charter period, influenced by the subjective and objective factors, a variety of financing models meeting inevitable problems, effectively identify the risk of highway charter period, and make targeted prevention and disposal, is in favor of the smooth operation of project.Based on the National Natural Science Foundation of Kun Ming University of Science and Technology Management and Economics, Professor Wang Songjiang topic "operating public infrastructure TOT Hall3D Model (70962003)", GH highway in Yun Nan Province as a case,study the risk of High way project charter period in the TOT financing mode.First of all, through the objective oriented project planning (ZOPP), according to the GH Highway Survey and case reports, define the possible risk in the franchising period, and through the problem checklist, problem tree and issues of groups form to explain;Secondly, through the combination of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the analytic hierarchy process, quantifying the risks of the GH highway, determining the risk of low probability and low possibility of account for65.5%, the risk affecting size as follows:operational risk-financial risk-management risk-policy risk-post evaluation risk-environmental risk.Thirdly, according to the difference of influence degree of risk to project, proposing countermeasures accordingly. GH highway project is feasible and can be implemented under conditions of starting risk countermeasures at all levels.Long-term perspective considering, the plight of the current operation and management can be balanced after a certain period of operation, and ultimately profitable. However, due to the change of highway toll policy and lack of traffic, from the short-term perspective, the likelihood of the risk still exists, based on the problems faced by the highway industry in recent years, proposing corresponding countermeasures.The purpose of the study is taking GH highway project as an example analyzing franchise risk of Highway project in the mode of TOT, providing some reference for the transfer and operation of the post-project.