Study On The Relationship Between The Energy Consumption And Economic Growth In Guangdong Province And The Analysis Of Early Warning And Forecast Of Energy

The economy got a rapid development in Guangdong provinces since it followed thepolicy of reform and opening. With rapid growth of economy, the energy consumption ofGuangdong province is growing dramatically. And during the period of "eleventh five-year plan",decreasing energy consumption per unit output value is impressive, but energy consumption ishigh. However, coexist with the state’s energy poverty in Guangdong province, energy shortagehas become the bottleneck of further economic development. Under this background, studyinherent dependence of energy consumption and economic growth has important theoretical andpolicy significance for Guangdong province to adjusting the industrial structure and energyconsumption structure. This article analyses the present situation and development trend inseparately and constructs two models depend on economic growth and energy consumption datafrom1985to2011years. Specifically speaking, the following major findings have been achieved.There is unidirectional causalities from energy consumption to GDP in Guangdong province andenergy development mainly affect economy by the form of short-term volatility, not bylong-term control. The co-integration model which based on production function indicates thatchanges of energy consumption in Guangdong province will have a lasting positive impact oneconomic growth, and this influence is gradually increasing with the passage of time. Bystudying the canonical correlation between the energy consumption structure and industrialstructure, this paper found that has replaced coal as the main indexes of energy consumption, andthe promote effect from electricity consumption is mainly manifested in the growth of the grossvalue of industrial output. With the status of high external dependence in Guangdong province,this article analyses safety status of Guangdong province and predict the future safety status andfound that energy security status of Guangdong province has improved markedly since2000year,and the year of the future will also be in a safe state. In the end, this paper provides some policysuggestions for economic development and energy consumption based on the results of empiricalanalysis.