Study On China Provincial Areas’ Economic Growth Trends And Business Cycles

The speed and quality of regional economic integration are, to some degree,affected by the long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of regional economic. Thisarticle investigates the similarity and difference of economic growth process in chinaprovincial region since1952from empirical viewpoint. With the help of waveletanalysis and cluster analysis, we carry out the process and analysis of every provincialregion’ GDP per capita, and come to such following conclusions:1. From the long-term trend view, every provincial region show such followingcharacteristic:①most of the provincial region in china suffered three times of troughsfrom1952-2010, while the increasing trend for every region did not change;②thecorrelation of long-term trends between east provinces were more obvious than mediaand west provinces, while media provinces were more evident than west;③the resultfrom the test of correlation coefficient matrix show that there are five groups ofprovinces demonstrate a higher P-value than5%, but other regions’ correlationcoefficient show a notable correlation ship;④the aggregation between east provinceswere more notable after1978.2. From the perspective of short-term fluctuation,①provincial regions in chinaexperienced10times of troughs at least, and the most regions experienced even14times;②there exist a trend of convergence for the frequency and extend of fluctuationin china provincial regions, and east provinces show a faster speed than otherprovinces;③the result from the test of correlation coefficient matrix show that thereare44groups of provinces demonstrate a higher P-value than5%, which means thatthose groups show a negative or non correlation between each other; the aggregationbetween east provinces were more notable after1978.3. There did not have σ convergence and conditional β convergence between chinaprovincial areas, but results shows that there was a weak absolutely β convergence inthose areas.