The Real Estate Market Cycle Research In Our Country Based On The Wavelet Analysis

The establishment of the real estate market plays an important role in China's socialist economic system reform,since the reform of the housing system has begun in China in 1998,China's real estate industry has become the pillar industry of our national economy.During this period,China's real estate market has the support of national policy,but the process of its development is not a smooth road.According to international experience,frequent and severe fluctuations in real estate will have a serious impact on the state's macro economy.Today,China's macro economy has entered a new normal,but as the national economic pillar of the real estate market turmoil again,the negative impact on China's macro economy is probably immeasurable.Therefore,the study of China's real estate cycle is of great practical significance.The study of China's real estate cycle,the State Housing boom index is the natural choice to study,but through the query related data,the author found that the State Housing boom index since 2012 has always been at the critical value below 100,and the contrary,China's real estate prices are rising steadily.The article is based on the scientific and rigorous consideration of the academic research,and decided to establish a real estate boom index which is consistent with the actual development of our country.According to the comprehensive,correspondence and data integrity for the selection of economic synthetic indicators standards,from the total amount,investment,production,trade and financial category in selected real estate industry added value,land acquisition costs,the amount of real estate investment,commercial housing construction area,the completion area,sales area of commercial housing,commodity the real total sales,average price,M2 and urban residents' disposable income and other indicators.Through the selection of indicators of the relevant test,the article selected the timing of the global principal component analysis method to reflect the real estate market in China to reflect the development of the boom index and simple identification.Considering the advantages of wavelet analysis in signal processing,in the analysis of the boom index trend of synthesis of wavelet decomposition is introduced in this paper to get the real estate boom after the cycle of composite index,at the same time,through the coherence on the part of social macro factors,in order to provide a theoretical basis for the end of the chapter,suggestions.Through the study we can get the following conclusions: in the short period of recognition,fluctuations of the real estate market in China is about 16 quarters;in recognition of long period on the fluctuation cycle of the real estate market in China is about 24 quarters.Wavelet coherence analysis results show that the development of the real estate industry in a short period and has a great role in promoting the rise of the industrial added value growth and total retail sales of social consumer goods,or that the real estate industry always acts as the engine of economic growth in the early course of development in China;in the real estate industry in the long run to me the country's economy promoting effect is significantly reduced,with the single variable wavelet prediction results of the model,showing the real estate of our country national economy gradually transition from the "accelerator" to "stabilizer".