Tourism Demand Forecasting From The Perspective Of Tourism Supply Chain

Tourism industry as a key part of the tertiary industry has played an importantrole in promoting the world economy. Demand forecasting is the beginning of theoperation of all tourism management work, so the precision of travel demandforecasting for tourism enterprises is of great significance. At the same time, tourismis developed by the rise of tourism destination. Each tourist destination has uniquetourism resources and characteristics, which determines that tourists with differentdestination have different travel demand. For the destination tourism industryparticipants, accurate travel demand forecasting results can guide all production andoperating activities, like the product development and operations plan, etc.Due to the fact that tourism enterprises are numerous, it is needed to analyze thecharacteristics of tourism industry and tourism destination, and find the influentialfactors to establish an effective demand forecasting model. On the basis of thetraditional travel demand forecasting, this paper proposes a tourism destinationdemand forecasting model, which is based on the perspective of supply chain. Thispaper studied the operational process of tourism supply chain, analyzed its members’impact on tourism demand, and found the influential factors of tourism supply chain.First of all, this paper put forward the hypothesis of the factors of tourism supplychain. Then, this paper made use of the gray correlation analysis to verify that thehypothetical correlation factors are related to the destination tourism demand. Finally,this paper used the grey correlation analysis of selected factors to establish aprediction model. This paper constructed the United States-Hong Kong model topredict the number of inbound tourism in Hong Kong to verify the feasibility andeffectiveness of the method.