Credit Risk Evaluation

Since the financial crisis happened in2008, people pay more attention to the financial risk.And since credit risk is the main risk of global financial industry, listed company is the majorpart of the company that get investment and financial support, so we should enhance ourstudy and research on credit risk evaluation. Establish a good credit risk evaluation system isnot only concerns with the listed company development but also concerns with the investorand creditor in the financial market.The thesis consist of five chapters.The first chapter of this article describes the topicbackground and the research significance, and it elaborates the domestic and foreignresearches achievement, it also contains the framework and the contents of this thesis. Thesecond chapter is about the basic related theory knowledge of credit risk evaluation，thischapter elaborates the concept, reason, and character of credit risk. It makes a comparativestudy on the credit risk evaluation methods. Logistic regression method is an appropriatemethod for the credit risk evaluation of agricultural listed company samples. The third chapterintroduces the factor analysis method and the logistic regression method, it contains theprinciple and the model of this two method. At the last of chapter three, I choose the financialindex for the evaluation system by summarizing the predecessor’s studies. The fourth chapteris about the substantial evidence research of agricultural listed company. At first, we usefactor analysis method to compress the original financial index data, and then establish theappropriate logistic regression model for the credit risk evaluation of agricultural listedcompany. Finally, we use the financial data of2010to test the logistic regression model, thetest results demonstrate that the accuracy of the logistic regression model achieved91.6%.The fifth chapter summarize this research and do further analysis based on the logisticregression model of chapter four, then it discuss the shortcomings of this research and thenmade a forecast to the future credit risk evaluation research.