Research On Credit Risk Of Urban Commercial Banks In China

Due to the commodity circulation,credit has been gradually differentiated into various forms in the long process of social and economic development.Bank credit is one of them.With the vigorous development of modern banking industry,bank credit plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of economic resources and financial transactions,and constitutes the main body of modern economic and social credit relations.In financial activities,credit qualification of both sides of the transaction changes due to various uncertain factors,and credit risk occurs when the actual result deviates from the expected target.Most of the credit risks in Banks develop to bad aspects,which seriously affect the sound operation of Banks.As a financial institution with regional attributes,city commercial Banks serve small,medium and micro-sized enterprises and devote themselves to local economic development,which plays an important role in China's economic development.However,in recent years,the frequent occurrence of credit risk events in urban commercial Banks has not only adversely affected customer groups and local economy,but also brought credit crisis to the banking industry.In the process of financial marketization,credit risk has become the main risk faced by Banks,and it is also the risk that is greatly affected by uncertain factors.The occurrence of credit risk will lead to the emergence of other risks,and even bring about systemic risks,which is quite destructive.Therefore,this paper studies the credit risk of urban commercial Banks in China.This paper first introduces the background of the topic,the significance of the research and the research status at home and abroad,and then sorts out the concepts,theories and methods of credit risk,as the basis of theoretical analysis.Secondly,through the use of non-performing loan ratio,capital adequacy ratio,credit risk management level and other aspects of the current status of urban commercial Banks credit risk.Thirdly,108 urban commercial Banks in China were selected as the research objects to construct a relatively complete credit risk assessment model.The 10 selected financial and non-financial indicators were screened through factor analysis,and then the comprehensive evaluation of principal component analysis was conducted with the contribution rate of variance as the weight.Finally,Logistic regression was used to predict credit risk.The results showed that the overall prediction effect is better,the city commercial bank's comprehensive ranking is also in line with the actual situation,the quantitative analysis of reserved six indicators show that the general public budget income,urban per capita disposable income,trade debt,foreign expansion,capital adequacy,absorb deposits accounted for to some extent,affect the city commercial bank credit risk,therefore,this article from the resources endowment,capital regulation and sheets to face,this paper analyzes the factors which affect city commercial bank credit risk.Finally,this paper summarizes the research and puts forward some Suggestions on the credit risk management of urban commercial Banks in order to provide reference for the risk management of urban commercial Banks in China.