Spatial Distribution Of Land Use Policy Changes Driven Simulation

As the basic resource for human beings, the utilization of land also has changed with the development of need of the land use. The land resource of our country is abundant, the region is vast and the land type is various. However, the per capita possession of resources is limited, and the contradiction between supply and demand is severe. Therefore, the government should manage the land resource use and control the relationship between supply and demand from the macroscopic angle in order to make sure the land resource is utilized more effective. The land management policies will change constantly because of the situation of the land use is different. Therefore, the space layout of the land use will show different forms to different situations.In order to simulate the changes of the spatial layout based on the land use, this paper chose the CLUE-S model as the main simulation method. CLUE-S model improve the modeling method in the base of CLUE model, and its full name is the conversion of land use and its effects modeling frame-work to small regions. The model consisted of non-spatial demand analysis and spatial demand distribution, and the former is the basis of the running of the latter.In the CLUE-S model, the information which should be input includes space constraints, parameter of the land use change in detail, demand of land use and features of the research area. Therefore, this paper chose the part of country land with distinct local characteristics to analyze the situation of the land use in structure and spatial layout, determine the main policies about the changes of the land use. On this basis, analyze the changes of the demand of the land use in detail, select and merge the classes of the land use types reasonably. Then, create a new way to establish the driver files, chose the driver factor which is closely related with the different kinds of land. Using the logistic regression model and ROC curve to screen the driving factors repeatedly, select the driving factors suitable the study area mostly, in order to achieve the best effect of simulation. Finally, make a reasonable simulation of the effect of the land use change policies on the spatial layout by CLUE-S model. The reason realizes the expected simulation of the spatial policies, and accord with the actual situation and development requirements.According to the analysis of the simulation results from multiple angle, it is could be found that use the exact parameter settings suitable for the characteristics of the research area can achieve the better results. This paper simulate different policies about land use spatial layout like ’Construction land go up the mountain’,’Construction land move the land for farming’,’Construction land development along the river’,’The focus of industrial land expansion’,’land use intensive’ by CUE-S model at the same time. The results have certain significance to the land use change and land use planning.Through using the CLUE-S model, realize the simulation of the change of the land use spatial layout under the policies, at the same time proves that CLUE-S model is used to simulate the land use change. However, there are some problems of the model should be solved and studied. For example, it is unable to simulate a new land use type in a year in the simulation process. All these problems need to be improved.