| Land is the material basis of humans survival.With the problem of global ecological system coming and more in-depth,it becomes one of the hot areas in the Study of global ecosystem change. Combined with the urban construction developing rapidly in our country, it is more and more contradictory between urgently needs to improve the economic standard of living and the sustainable utilization of resources contradiction. But most urbanization research is from a policy perspective, it is still in its infancy that provides the forecast analysis and decision support for the sustainable development of the urbanization research problems. Under the land urbanization background, the research of Spatial layout of land use can consummate the space system of Land use study and provide the reference for the urbanization of regional land use pattern of the development decision support.The simulation and analysis of regional land use change becomes one of the core c ontent of LUCC research. Building Land use change model can deeply find out the ca uses and process of regional land use change and predicting the Land use future trend of development.Besides, it is a main research method for the land use/land cover chan ge and global change. CLUE - S model is consists of two parts which contains non-sp atial and spatial needs analysis, it is more suitable for middle and small scale space ra nge of regional land use change research.In this study,it analysises urban present situation by the resources of Land use sta tus quo and statistical data in 2010 and 2012 years of study area and prepares for the file of researching Land use spatial layout in CLUE-S model in 2020 years,throug h Combing urban background, related planning GIS technology application and the analytical mathematical statistics. The main contents of this study are as follows:(1) The article make an analysis and summary through the urbanization development background, present situation and future development direction, and clear of the land use change factors of land use spatial distribution under the background of future urbanization in the study area, establish the driving factors in binary linear regression model.And using ROC curve method is applied repeatedly to screening for drive factor, make simulation to achieve the best effect.(2)In order to achieve the best simulation effect, the article make an analysis and s ummary through the urbanization development background, present situation and futu re development directions and confirm the land use change factors of land use spatial distribution under the background of future urbanization in the study area. And ROC curve method being applied repeatedly to screening for drive factor, make it to achiev e the best effect.(3) In this study area,this paper tested the 2012 results of Land use and spatial distribution simulation for the kappa index, which proves that CLUE - S model is successfully simulated time and space dynamic change of land use. And then, it got 2020 land use and spatial layout simulation results.(4) Using the model of CLUE-S, the study paper have achieved the simulation of land use spatial layout under the background of the land urbanization. But the simulation also existed some problems should be solved, such as population, the limited number of index selection of social economic factors, or because of the time interval of existing base year is shorter, that lead to the choice of driving factors couldn’t detail and diversification enough. Besides, the research of similarities and differences in the land use spatial structure, in which between of different regional scale under the background of urbanization,etc. All these problems needs to be further research and discussion. |
PDF Full Text Request