The Evaluation Of Listed Energy Companies’ Credit Risk By Mutation Model

Modern market economy is based on credit economy, in the today’s crediteconomy ever-expanding, credit risk has attracted more and more attention, whichdirectly affect every corner of modern social and economic life, but also indirectlyaffect the overall development of a country’s macroeconomic policy and the nationaleconomy, thereby affecting the entire world economy and coordinated development,credit risk becomes the restriction factor of each industry development. For China, itis a so high speed, continuous, developing country, the energy industry healthydevelopment is a strategic issue related to the beneficial to the people’s livelihood.However, the development of energy industry is inseparable from the financialsupport, the energy industry how to carry out effective financing has become thedriving force of its development in the financial market. The effective financing isclosely related to its energy industry credit risk, credit risk has become a importantfactors constraining development of energy industry in china.Finance is the core elements of modern economy, energy is the driving force topromote the development of modern economy. Therefore, the use of financial marketsto promote the development of the energy industry has become a hot issue now.According to the special nature which China’s energy industry is closely related to thedevelopment of national economy, Based on the characteristics of China’s listingCorporation credit, we establish a matter element model which includes the aspectsof the macroeconomic environment, industry characteristics, the company operating,It has finished the Corresponding extension analysis of China’s energy industry creditrisk. Based on extension analysis of listing Corporation credit risk factors affectingChina’s energy industry, which established the four aspects of safety, profitability,package development and external economic environment, it is the combination oftraditional financial indicators with the external environment indicators listedcompanies of China’s energy sector credit evaluation index system. We select29energy industries listing Corporation from2005to2011seven years, use thecorrelation function of the extension theory to finish the quantitative processing of the selected indicators and obtain the degree of influence each index between the layersof the listed companies of the energy sector. We add the indicators data in the cuspcatastrophe model and butterfly catastrophe model, swallowtail catastrophe model andanalyze the changes in level of credit risk of listed companies of China’s energy sectorjoining the external environment indicators. The empirical results show that energylisting Corporation credit risk is closely related to the economy environment of ourcountry, After considering the economic environment indicators, the use ofcatastrophe model to measure the credit risk of listed companies integrated value haschanged. And facing the same external environment, the credit risk level of listedcompanies of the energy industry is different, which is closely related to their ownoperational management.Through the analysis of the energy industry listing Corporation credit risk, wethink that we should increase government support efforts, a comprehensive evaluationof the energy industry listing Corporation credit risk and improve the listingCorporation information disclosure policy to promote the healthy and sustainableenergy industry listing Corporation mutation model, which has great significance toChina’s sustainable economic development and people’s living standard improvement.