A Research On Aquatic Trade Effects Of CAFTA

China and ASEAN are the producers and exporters of aquatic products, their output and exports of aquatic products ranked among the top of the world. But China and ASEAN bilateral aquatic trade was small. On November4,2002, China and ASEAN leaders signed the agreement of China and ASEAN comprehensive economic cooperation framework, marking the launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. With the implementation of the Early Harvest Program, more than600kinds of products, including aquatic products, gradually reduce the level of trade barriers and tariffs, China and ASEAN bilateral aquatic trade begins moving into a new phase. In this context, exploring the economic impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on bilateral aquatic trade, has great significance in guiding the development of aquatic trade between China and ASEAN.Since China-ASEAN Free Trade Area began to construct, the volume of aquatic products trade between China and ASEAN expands year by year. From the structure of bilateral aquatic trade, ASEAN exports primary aquatic products to China mainly, while China’s exports to ASEAN not only including the primary aquatic products, but also including a large proportion of deep-processed products and the proportion is rising. Using the revealed comparative advantage index and the trade binding index to analyze the competition and complementarity of China and ASEAN aquatic trade, the paper finds China’s aquatic products is less competitive than Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, but is better than Malaysia, Cambodia, and Singapore. Overall aquatic product trade between China and ASEAN has strong complementary to each other.The implementation of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area expands the aquatic trade flows in the free trade area, and trade creation effect is produced, but trade diversion effect is not produced. Compared to China, aquatic products trade creation effect is more apparent in ASEAN countries. In addition, the construction of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area also generates dynamic effects such as economies of scale, competition promotion and investment creation. In the long run, these effects will be conducive to the development of bilateral trade in fish products.Economies scale of ASEAN countries and the development of China’s aquatic products industry have a positive impact on aquatic trade creation effect, while per capita income gap between China and the ASEAN countries, exchange rate changes and the distance between China and the ASEAN countries have a negative impact. As far as China is concerned, in order to expand the trade creation effect, China should strive to enhance its aquatic products industry, and help ASEAN countries to develop their economy.To expand the dynamic effects, Chinese aquatic enterprises should actively respond to competition and implement the strategy of " to be big" and "going out".