Research On The Influences Of International Capital Flow To Our Commercial Bank System Stability

With the development of financial liberalization and economic globalization, the scale and structure of international capital flows have changed greatly. We see that the international capital flow is like a "double-edged sword", on one hand, it promotes the development of the economy of the host country, and on the other hand, it also gives the host country’s economy negative factors. With the continuous development of China’s economy, the reform of market economy and the gradual opening of capital accounts and RMB appreciation expectations and other factors, a large number of international capital in different types through various channels flows into china. More and more scholars think that the international capital flow is one of the reasons which cause the crisis of a country’s economic and financial, especially short-term international capital transformation of the large scale, high liquidity and the investment direction occurred easily is most intense to the financial system of a country’s impact. But the commercial bank system is the main part of Chinese financial system, and the commercial bank is the core of China’s macro economy and financial system, because of reasons above, the impact of international capital flow on the stability of China’s commercial banking system and how to effectively manage the flow of international capital is very important to ensure that the commercial banking system operate stably and healthily in China.This paper first analyzes the classification and the international capital flows of international capital, and then analyzes the direct and indirect impact of international capital on the host country’s banking system. The direct impact to the host country is through direct investment, direct loans and securities investment, which cause the structure of assets and liabilities of commercial banks and the change of commercial banks to expand the scale, and increase the operating risk of commercial banks. Indirect impact for the flow of international capital will host the macroeconomic influence, the benchmark interest rate and the real exchange rate, but these effects will be transferred to commercial banks through various policies, which increase the risk of commercial bank management.After analyzing the impact of international capital flow on the stability of China’s commercial banking system stability of the path, this paper constructs a IBSS index that measures our country commercial bank system. Through the selection of commercial bank loans to private sector, total deposits in commercial banks and Commercial Bank net foreign assets of, which constructed the IBSS model, a measure of the stability of commercial banking system in China from19872011, the results found that the commercial banking system in China is in an unstable state in most years from1987. Then taking IBSS index as the dependent variable, based on the international capital flow variable,11small indicators of the macroeconomic variables and financial variables and three types of variables do variables as dependent variable to do multiple regression analysis, the results showed that the FDI has an important influence on stability of overseas securities investment and other indicators of short-term foreign debt in China’s commercial the banking system. Through the empirical analysis, respectively, the corresponding construction suggestions which were put forward from two aspects of strengthening the management of international capital flows in China and it improved the commercial bank’s own construction.