Forecast The International Tourism Demand

As South Korea’s rapid economic development, the third industry continues to expand and gradually become an important factor, of South Korea’s GDP growth in recent years due to the increasing exchanges with international politics, economy and culture, national disposable income, leisure time increasing, more and more people equip themselves through tourism, international tourism is developing rapidly. Travel demand forecasting in the national tourism development policy and strategic planning and decision making has a very important role. Demand forecast is an important tourism planning management work. Travel demand forecasting for tourism planning and construction of tourism infrastructure, organization products and offer tourists in the early period of the service is a basic work. The forecast of economic management activities cannot leave.At first, this paper USES the method of literature review, the concept of tourism demand, tourism demand factors, international tourism demand forecasting model theory carding and summarizing related research, and carries on the comparison to travel demand forecasting method, and compares the gravity model and multivariate regression model.Selection based on the research design part, South Korea inbound tourism as sample, using various data of inbound tourism in South Korea in2011, choose exchange rate, GDP, population, time, number of inbound tourism as a variable, to establish multiple linear regression model, the regression analysis on the influencing inbound tourism demand in South Korea, and made to the model parameter estimation, based on this model a certain explanation, analysis the main factors influencing the inbound tourism demand in South Korea and its influence degree, for predicting the number of inbound tourism in South Korea has certain theoretical guidance and practical significance. Qualitative research methods, with induction method, deductive method of related theory, empirical analysis, according to the international tourism demand put forward the corresponding Suggestions.