The Economic Role Played By Euro Zone Monetary Integration In The Main Perspective Of Trade

In2008, the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States that quickly spread to theEuro Zone, had made the seemingly vibrant Euro Zone economy fall into a heavy debt immediately. Up tonow, the Euro Zone debt crisis continues. Based on such a background, this paper focuses on unified euro’simpact on the economic and trade development of euro zone countries during the relatively stabledevelopment phase from the establishment of the Euro Zone to the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgagecrisis (1999-2008).First of all, the author carries out a comparative analysis on foreign trade of the eurozone countries during the periods of1990-1998,1999-2008,especially2002-2008in chapter3; Second, theauthor verifies whether the structural changes of the euro zone foreign trade have taken place by Chow’sbreakpoint test after2002in chapter4; Finally, for the sake of a scientific rigorous research methods, thepaper makes a comprehensive consideration of the positive factors of world economic recovery in2002,which may have impacts on the euro zone’s foreign trade, and introduces dummy variable time, then buildsa model, empirically analysises the influence on the euro zone’s foreign trade of the establishment of theeuro zone and the world economy variables respectively.Through the study on the euro zone’s foreign trade, the author concludes that:First of all, in the third chapter, we conclud that:(1) the growth rate of the euro zone’s overall exportsin three time periods are5.58%,9.54%and5.58%respectively, the growth rate of the euro zone’s overallimports in three periods respectively4.54%,10.27%and13.66%, the euro zone’s overall import and exporthad made rapid development after the set up of euro zone, especially after the formal circulation of euro;(2)In the national level of the euro area, we analyze five countries, in addition to Ireland, the other fourcountries’ foreign trades have greatly ascended after the formal circulation of euro, and have mutationpoints in the foreign trade development trend diagram. On the basis of this analysis, we generally analyzethe rest of a few countries, and find that they are similar to the four countries above basically. However, aprominent problem is that after the euro zone was set up, the other nine countries’ except Germany and theNetherlands import development speed is faster than that of the development of export;(3) then we carriesout a comparative analysis on the trade structures of the eurozone as a whole, and finds that the structuresof SITC3, SITC5, SITC6, SITC7have made evident changes, while the changes of other kinds of commodity structure are very small;(4) then we analyze the trade between the countries within the euroarea, and find what is similar to total trade development of the euro zone countries, and the average annualgrowth rates of the euro zone’s internal trade before and after the three times are2.9%,9.7%and12.4%respectively, the latter two is3.3times and4.3times of the the formal one, which fully embodies the tradeeffects produced by the euro zone currency integration.Secondly, in the fourth chapter, the author has carried on Chow’s breakpoint test on the euro area’sforeign trade within the euro zone. The author finds that structural changes have taken place in most of theeuro zone countries before and after2002, that is to say,2002is the mutation point in the development ofthe euro zone countries foreign trade, suggesting that the adoption of the euro really promote thedevelopment of foreign trade of the zone.Finally, in the fifth chapter, the empirical analysis shows that:(1) the establishment of the euro zone,world imports, the total amount of investment and export trade of the euro zone exist positive correlation,and the impact coefficients respectively are5884.5472,0.259363and0.039413;(2) the establishment of theeuro zone, the world’s total exports and imports of the euro area exist positive correlation, and the influencecoefficients for the euro zone exports, respectively, are9961.679and0.174639, while the relationshipbetween the total amount of investment and import trade in the euro area is negative, and the influencecoefficient is-0.629710.