| At present, with the impact of the international financial crisiscontinues, there are many internal and external uncertainties, for instance,the world economy continues to be weaker, the sovereign debt crisiscontinues to evolve, geopolitical conflict as well as the domesticeconomic recovery process over and over again. Policies such as widemonetary and low interest rates in major economies continue to push upglobal liquidity, improve the market risk preference, and stimulate theinternational arbitrage capital flows to China, which may lead to the sharposcillation of the international capital flowing in our country. So carryingout the monitoring and early warning analysis of China’s internationalcapital flowing is very necessary in ensuring the orderly stability ofChina’s international capital flowing.Based on the analysis of the data ofChina’s international capital flowing market, which is from1982-2011,this thesis aims to discuss the following questions:1) identifying whichyear occurred catastrophe in the past30years;2) carrying on theempirical analysis of the catastrophe years;3) forecasting the futuresituation of China’s international capital flowing. According to the aboveproblem, this article’s research work and main contribution focus on thefollowing aspects:Firstly, combing the existing research literature on internationalcapital flowing, the author finds that scholars at home and abroad havemainly studied in the following aspects: the cause of the internationalcapital flowing, influence factor, measurement method, the impact on theeconomy, the monitoring and early warning, supervision and so on. Thispaper uses the statistical and econometric theory and method of relevantdisciplines, and proposes to introduce the catastrophe theory which comesfrom mathematics and physics into the early warning analysis of China’sinternational capital flowing. This provides a new research idea on theearly catastrophe warning of China’s international capital flowing. Secondly, according to the actual situation of China’s internationalcapital flowing, this paper selects eight indicators and bases on thecatastrophe theory to construct the warning model of China’s internationalcapital flowing, in order to determine the catastrophe years. Finding that:1) Basing on the pull function and super pull function value, combiningwith the analysis of the speed indicator, preliminary screening twocatastrophe years in the past three decades of years, respectively in1997and2008;2) According to the early warning mutation model calculationformula, this thesis makes seven level early warning table of each relatedindicators. The speed rate of the indicators in the two catastrophe yearshas obvious trend with the early warning table;3) By standardization andweighted average of the index speed of economic growth level of twocatastrophe years, this article gets the comprehensive early warning scorefor each year. Then, the paper compares the comprehensive score with theseven warning comprehensive assessment to examine the mutation years.Thirdly, through the ARMA model prediction and the GM (1,1)grey forecasting, the thesis gets the combination forecast index of China’sinternational capital flowing in the future years, then calculates theindexes of economic growth speed, in order to forecast the futuresituation of China’s international capital flowing. The author finds that:1)Calculating the comprehensive early warning score of China’sinternational capital flowing in the future years to determine thecomprehensive early warning rank, in order to judge when China’sinternational capital flowing will mutate in the future years;2) Sevenearly warning comprehensive assessment provides intuitive basis todetermine the dynamic changes of China’s international capital flowing,providing a reference for the decision makers to monitor daily capitalflowing, better for the early catastrophe warning of China’s internationalcapital flowing in the future, ensuring the warning of scientific, real-timeand dynamic. |
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