Syudy On Optimization Of China's Short-term Cross-border Capital Monitoring And Early Warning

In recent years,the global economy has gradually recovered and major developed economies have gradually withdrawn from quantitative easing,which lead to emerging market economies capital outflows.China will inevitably face the pressure of capital flows,especially the impact of short-term capital flows.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to optimize China's short-term cross-border capital monitoring and early warning system.This paper selects the monthly data from June 2010 to December 2016,and optimizes the early-warning model through the research method of the KLR..First,through the indirect method to estimate the monthly scale of short-term cross-border capital flows,Short-term cross-border capital flows divided by funds outstanding for foreign exchange is used as the reference sequence.Second,Identify 22 alternative indicators,Through granger causality test and grey relational analysis choose three synchronous indicators,the Grey correlation coefficient is used as the weight to composing the risk index.Third,through granger causality test choose 7 leading indicators.Based on the principal component analysis,two main factors are extracted,The precautionary index is based on factors,variance.Last,The threshold is determined through the classification of class 5 and the probability distribution,check the warning effect of data in sample period,It found that the correct warning was issued 12 times in 16 crisis warnings.The lead cycle is basically one to two months.Warning accuracy reached 75%.Based on the empirical test results of the optimization model,and the shortage of short-term cross-border capital monitoring and warning in China,here puts forward the methods to improve the short-term cross-border capital monitoring and warning from two aspects of technology and system.Including that put the political indicators into the early warning system;Improve the data collection mechanism;Strengthen macroprudential management;Deepen interest rate liberalization;Promote reform of the exchange rate system.Intensify the crackdown on underground bank transactions;Promote international cooperation on the promotion of short-term crossborder capital monitoring and early warning.