Study On The Monitoring And Early Warning Of The Economic Growth Quality Of China's Provincial Capital City In The New Normal

China's economy has entered a new normal stage.Under the influence of the national economic environment and economic policies,urban economic growth is also facing problems.The rate of economic growth is falling.The contradiction problem of Economic structure is prominent.New growth points and driving forces need to be explored.Urban economic growth not only pays attention to the quantity accumulation and the scale expansion of the economy,but also pays more attention to the improvement of the quality and benefit of the growth.Monitoring and early warning of the quality of economic growth of provincial capital will help to promote the economic management departments to predict the major changes that may occur,reduce the violent fluctuations of the economy,and promote the overall quality of economic growth of provincial capitals and even the whole country.Based on the existing research results,this paper defines the connotation of the quality of urban economic growth,analyzes the theoretical mechanism of improving the quality of urban economic growth,and then designs the monitoring and early warning index system of the quality of economic growth in provincial capital cities.Then,this paper determines the specific methods,constructs monitoring and early warning system and finally use the economic data of 26 provincial capitals to apply the monitoring and early warning system.In the monitoring subsystem,the index weight is determined by projection pursuit model.The subsystem includes both longitudinal time series monitoring and horizontal cross-section monitoring.In the early warning subsystem,this paper forecasts the index of economic growth quality monitoring in 26 provincial capitals in 2016.Finally,this paper puts forward the path choice to improve the quality of economic growth in the capital cities.